2026 FEI Game Projections
2026 :: 2025 :: 2024 :: 2023 :: 2022
Game Projections, based on FEI ratings calculated as of the previous week, include the win likelihood (PW), margin of victory (PM), points scored (PF), points allowed (PA), and game total (PT) for the projected winner of each FBS game. Game results indicate the final score of the game, the closing line (CL), and closing over/under game total (CT). Projection results indicate the game projection error (PE) calculated as the absolute value of the delta between the projected margin and actual margin of victory, and whether the game projection correctly identified the game winner (SU), the winner against the closing betting line (ATS), and the winner against the closing over/under game total (O/U).
| Week 1 Game Projections | Game Results | Projection Results | ||||||||||||||
| Projected Win | Projected Loss | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT | Final | CL | CT | PE | SU | ATS | O/U | |||
| Alabama | East Carolina | .962 | 23.4 | 36.7 | 13.3 | 50.0 | W 48-10 | -27.5 | 52.5 | 14.6 | Win | Loss | Loss | |||
| Auburn | Baylor | .666 | 6.2 | 28.1 | 21.9 | 50.0 | W 17-16 | -6.5 | 58.5 | 5.2 | Win | Win | Win | |||
| Cincinnati | Boston College | .788 | 11.8 | 33.9 | 22.1 | 56.0 | W 34-15 | -7.5 | 51.5 | 7.2 | Win | Win | Loss | |||
| Colorado State | Wyoming | .506 | .2 | 23.0 | 22.7 | 45.7 | W 35-13 | -2.5 | 46.5 | 21.8 | Win | Loss | Loss | |||
| Duke | Tulane | .583 | 3.0 | 28.8 | 25.8 | 54.6 | W 17-3 | -9.5 | 51.5 | 11.0 | Win | Loss | Loss | |||
| Florida | Florida Atlantic | .959 | 23.1 | 37.2 | 14.1 | 51.2 | W 66-21 | -26.5 | 59.5 | 21.9 | Win | Loss | Loss | |||
| Florida State | SMU | .561 | 2.2 | 28.7 | 26.5 | 55.2 | L 24-27 | +2.5 | 54.5 | 5.2 | Loss | Loss | Loss | |||
| Georgia Tech | Colorado | .744 | 9.7 | 31.1 | 21.4 | 52.6 | L 13-14 | -6.5 | 53.5 | 10.7 | Loss | Loss | Win | |||
| Houston | Oregon State | .804 | 12.7 | 31.9 | 19.3 | 51.2 | W 33-20 | -20.5 | 50.5 | .3 | Win | Win | Win | |||
| Illinois | UAB | .990 | 27.5 | 41.8 | 14.3 | 56.1 | W 42-23 | -25.5 | 54.5 | 8.5 | Win | Loss | Win | |||
| Indiana | North Texas | .972 | 24.4 | 40.6 | 16.1 | 56.7 | W 52-16 | -40.5 | 55.5 | 11.6 | Win | Win | Win | |||
| Iowa | Northern Illinois | .990 | 31.4 | 36.6 | 5.2 | 41.8 | W 40-0 | -52.5 | 67.5 | 8.6 | Win | Win | Win | |||
| James Madison | Liberty | .877 | 16.9 | 34.4 | 17.5 | 51.9 | W 20-13 | -5.5 | 50.5 | 9.9 | Win | Win | Loss | |||
| LSU | Clemson | .615 | 4.2 | 24.7 | 20.5 | 45.2 | W 51-10 | -10.5 | 49.5 | 36.8 | Win | Loss | Loss | |||
| Memphis | Arkansas State | .878 | 16.9 | 33.8 | 16.9 | 50.7 | W 42-24 | -10.5 | 52.5 | 1.1 | Win | Win | Loss | |||
| Miami | Stanford | .919 | 19.8 | 34.1 | 14.3 | 48.4 | W 45-6 | -24.5 | 46.5 | 19.2 | Win | Loss | Win | |||
| Michigan | Western Michigan | .985 | 25.8 | 37.3 | 11.5 | 48.8 | W 13-12 | -28.5 | 49.5 | 24.8 | Win | Win | Win | |||
| Michigan State | Toledo | .518 | .6 | 24.5 | 23.8 | 48.3 | W 30-20 | -9.5 | 48.5 | 9.4 | Win | Loss | Loss | |||
| Mississippi State | UL Monroe | .990 | 27.7 | 39.2 | 11.5 | 50.6 | W 62-13 | -28.5 | 54.5 | 21.3 | Win | Loss | Loss | |||
| Nebraska | Ohio | .816 | 13.3 | 32.3 | 19.0 | 51.3 | W 49-21 | -23.5 | 47.5 | 14.7 | Win | Loss | Win | |||
| New Mexico | Central Michigan | .705 | 7.9 | 27.8 | 19.9 | 47.7 | W 38-7 | -10.5 | 47.5 | 23.1 | Win | Loss | Loss | |||
| Notre Dame | Wisconsin | .932 | 20.8 | 32.6 | 11.7 | 44.3 | W 41-13 | -21.5 | 46.5 | 7.2 | Win | Loss | Loss | |||
| Ohio State | Ball State | .990 | 52.8 | 50.1 | -2.7 | 47.4 | W 56-3 | -49.5 | 55.5 | .2 | Win | Win | Loss | |||
| Oklahoma | UTEP | .990 | 37.0 | 39.8 | 2.8 | 42.6 | W 51-0 | -40.5 | 51.5 | 14.0 | Win | Loss | Win | |||
| Oklahoma State | Tulsa | .661 | 6.0 | 26.7 | 20.6 | 47.3 | L 10-24 | -13.5 | 57.5 | 20.0 | Loss | Win | Win | |||
| Ole Miss | Louisville | .726 | 8.8 | 30.6 | 21.8 | 52.5 | W 41-38 | -6.5 | 54.5 | 5.8 | Win | Loss | Loss | |||
| Oregon | Boise State | .990 | 27.2 | 39.8 | 12.7 | 52.5 | W 34-27 | -25.5 | 53.5 | 20.2 | Win | Loss | Loss | |||
| Penn State | Marshall | .990 | 26.7 | 37.9 | 11.2 | 49.1 | W 45-0 | -23.5 | 53.5 | 18.3 | Win | Win | Win | |||
| Pittsburgh | Miami (OH) | .862 | 15.9 | 29.7 | 13.8 | 43.5 | W 59-14 | -16.5 | 47.5 | 29.1 | Win | Loss | Loss | |||
| Rutgers | Massachusetts | .990 | 34.1 | 46.3 | 12.3 | 58.6 | L 21-37 | -29.5 | 54.5 | 50.1 | Loss | Loss | Win | |||
| San Jose State | Eastern Michigan | .516 | .6 | 26.6 | 26.0 | 52.6 | W 27-21 | +1.5 | 55.5 | 5.4 | Win | Win | Win | |||
| South Carolina | Kent State | .990 | 32.9 | 41.2 | 8.3 | 49.5 | W 57-0 | -35.5 | 53.5 | 24.1 | Win | Loss | Loss | |||
| South Florida | Florida International | .941 | 21.5 | 35.4 | 13.9 | 49.3 | W 19-9 | -14.5 | 52.5 | 11.5 | Win | Loss | Win | |||
| Texas | Texas State | .990 | 26.1 | 39.5 | 13.4 | 52.8 | W 59-7 | -29.5 | 60.5 | 25.9 | Win | Loss | Loss | |||
| Texas A&M | Missouri State | .990 | 32.2 | 42.9 | 10.8 | 53.7 | W 50-0 | -38.5 | 53.5 | 17.8 | Win | Loss | Loss | |||
| Troy | Sam Houston | .864 | 16.0 | 29.7 | 13.7 | 43.5 | W 24-21 | -16.5 | 53.5 | 13.0 | Win | Win | Win | |||
| UCLA | California | .515 | .5 | 25.7 | 25.2 | 51.0 | W 45-24 | -2.5 | 53.5 | 20.5 | Win | Loss | Loss | |||
| UNLV | Hawaii | .588 | 3.2 | 28.9 | 25.7 | 54.6 | W 21-6 | -1.5 | 55.5 | 11.8 | Win | Win | Win | |||
| USC | Fresno State | .957 | 23.0 | 38.6 | 15.6 | 54.2 | W 39-0 | -21.5 | 51.5 | 16.0 | Win | Win | Loss | |||
| Wake Forest | Akron | .990 | 28.1 | 36.7 | 8.6 | 45.3 | W 38-16 | -27.5 | 50.5 | 6.1 | Win | Loss | Loss | |||
| Washington | Washington State | .823 | 13.7 | 31.3 | 17.6 | 48.8 | W 24-10 | -23.5 | 51.5 | .3 | Win | Win | Win | |||
| West Virginia | Coastal Carolina | .810 | 12.9 | 31.3 | 18.3 | 49.6 | W 31-24 | -20.5 | 54.5 | 5.9 | Win | Win | Loss | |||
| Western Kentucky | Nevada | .682 | 6.9 | 27.4 | 20.5 | 47.9 | L 14-49 | -1.5 | 51.5 | 41.9 | Loss | Loss | Loss | |||
| Week 0 Game Projections | Game Results | Projection Results | ||||||||||||||
| Projected Win | Projected Loss | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT | Final | CL | CT | PE | SU | ATS | O/U | |||
| Eastern Michigan | Sacramento State | .675 | 6.6 | 31.1 | 24.4 | 55.5 | W 28-17 | -9.5 | 53.5 | 4.4 | Win | Loss | Loss | |||
| Florida State | New Mexico State | .990 | 30.2 | 40.8 | 10.6 | 51.5 | W 34-17 | -31.5 | 54.5 | 13.2 | Win | Win | Win | |||
| Jacksonville State | North Dakota State | .704 | 7.9 | 29.8 | 22.0 | 51.8 | L 7-33 | +6.5 | 46.5 | 33.9 | Loss | Loss | Loss | |||
| Memphis | UNLV | .533 | 1.1 | 27.8 | 26.7 | 54.5 | W 27-21 | +4.5 | 55.5 | 4.9 | Win | Win | Win | |||
| Stanford | Hawaii | .638 | 5.1 | 26.8 | 21.7 | 48.4 | W 37-27 | -4.5 | 49.5 | 4.9 | Win | Win | Loss | |||
| TCU | North Carolina | .821 | 13.6 | 33.4 | 19.8 | 53.2 | L 10-15 | -7.5 | 45.5 | 18.6 | Loss | Loss | Loss | |||
| USC | San Jose State | .990 | 29.4 | 43.7 | 14.4 | 58.1 | W 42-26 | -37.5 | 61.5 | 13.4 | Win | Win | Loss | |||
| Virginia | NC State | .506 | .2 | 24.6 | 24.4 | 49.1 | W 34-8 | -4.5 | 50.5 | 25.8 | Win | Loss | Win | |||