2024 Preseason Win Total Projections
Win total projections are calculated from individual game projections based on preseason team ratings (PFEI) and represent the range of outcomes that each team should expect to have against its set of regular season opponents (including games against FCS opponents), assuming that team and opponent ratings remain stable for the duration of the season. Mean wins (MW) are equal to the sum of projected individual game win likelihoods. See also: 2024 PFEI Preseason Ratings
Rk | Team | PFEI | MW | Rk | 12W | 11W | 10W | 9W | 8W | 7W | 6W | 5W | 4W | 3W | 2W | 1W | 0W | |
1 | Georgia | 1.41 | 10.6 | 1 | .185 | .388 | .292 | .103 | .028 | .004 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
2 | Ohio State | 1.31 | 10.5 | 2 | .149 | .377 | .332 | .131 | .011 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
3 | Oregon | 1.30 | 10.2 | 6 | .087 | .317 | .345 | .187 | .057 | .006 | .001 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
4 | Michigan | 1.28 | 10.2 | 5 | .085 | .287 | .344 | .218 | .059 | .007 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
5 | Alabama | 1.21 | 9.9 | 8 | .081 | .247 | .310 | .239 | .095 | .026 | .001 | .001 | - | - | - | - | - | |
6 | Notre Dame | .95 | 10.5 | 3 | .166 | .383 | .282 | .138 | .030 | .001 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
7 | LSU | .93 | 9.2 | 11 | .030 | .145 | .285 | .275 | .186 | .062 | .014 | .003 | - | - | - | - | - | |
8 | Penn State | .92 | 9.3 | 10 | .032 | .164 | .273 | .262 | .166 | .081 | .020 | .001 | .001 | - | - | - | - | |
9 | Texas | .92 | 9.1 | 14 | .014 | .097 | .232 | .339 | .218 | .082 | .015 | .003 | - | - | - | - | - | |
10 | Oklahoma | .85 | 8.4 | 21 | .003 | .045 | .143 | .277 | .266 | .180 | .072 | .012 | .002 | - | - | - | - | |
11 | Washington | .84 | 8.6 | 19 | .010 | .056 | .187 | .295 | .256 | .144 | .041 | .011 | - | - | - | - | - | |
12 | Kansas State | .82 | 10.0 | 7 | .104 | .266 | .308 | .207 | .087 | .021 | .006 | .001 | - | - | - | - | - | |
13 | Clemson | .70 | 8.9 | 15 | .011 | .087 | .240 | .286 | .222 | .104 | .040 | .009 | .001 | - | - | - | - | |
14 | Tennessee | .64 | 8.3 | 25 | .002 | .028 | .137 | .283 | .311 | .168 | .060 | .010 | .001 | - | - | - | - |
Rk | Team | PFEI | MW | Rk | 12W | 11W | 10W | 9W | 8W | 7W | 6W | 5W | 4W | 3W | 2W | 1W | 0W | |
15 | Texas A&M | .63 | 8.1 | 27 | .005 | .045 | .102 | .241 | .283 | .201 | .094 | .023 | .006 | - | - | - | - | |
16 | Utah | .62 | 9.2 | 13 | .036 | .131 | .268 | .291 | .152 | .081 | .030 | .009 | .002 | - | - | - | - | |
17 | Missouri | .61 | 8.7 | 17 | .011 | .057 | .196 | .319 | .250 | .133 | .032 | .002 | - | - | - | - | - | |
18 | Ole Miss | .61 | 8.0 | 28 | - | .029 | .104 | .243 | .309 | .192 | .089 | .030 | .004 | - | - | - | - | |
19 | Florida State | .59 | 8.3 | 23 | .005 | .040 | .197 | .257 | .230 | .174 | .074 | .020 | .003 | - | - | - | - | |
20 | USC | .56 | 6.5 | 61 | .001 | .004 | .016 | .068 | .166 | .236 | .267 | .161 | .059 | .019 | .003 | - | - | |
21 | Oregon State | .55 | 9.2 | 12 | .020 | .125 | .283 | .293 | .184 | .074 | .020 | .001 | - | - | - | - | - | |
22 | Auburn | .49 | 7.3 | 47 | - | .006 | .035 | .121 | .290 | .313 | .172 | .053 | .007 | .002 | .001 | - | - | |
23 | Iowa State | .49 | 8.0 | 29 | .004 | .041 | .137 | .199 | .250 | .209 | .126 | .026 | .007 | .001 | - | - | - | |
24 | Wisconsin | .46 | 7.1 | 54 | .001 | .005 | .050 | .128 | .235 | .269 | .183 | .093 | .034 | .002 | - | - | - | |
25 | Louisville | .45 | 8.0 | 30 | - | .035 | .127 | .224 | .277 | .187 | .108 | .035 | .004 | .003 | - | - | - | |
26 | Oklahoma State | .43 | 7.9 | 33 | .003 | .023 | .103 | .241 | .273 | .208 | .110 | .030 | .006 | .003 | - | - | - | |
27 | Arizona | .39 | 7.8 | 35 | .002 | .024 | .095 | .193 | .257 | .226 | .148 | .042 | .013 | - | - | - | - | |
28 | TCU | .39 | 7.6 | 40 | .001 | .018 | .078 | .167 | .233 | .257 | .150 | .061 | .027 | .008 | - | - | - | |
29 | Florida | .39 | 5.5 | 83 | - | .001 | .006 | .017 | .075 | .157 | .234 | .253 | .163 | .080 | .014 | - | - |
Rk | Team | PFEI | MW | Rk | 12W | 11W | 10W | 9W | 8W | 7W | 6W | 5W | 4W | 3W | 2W | 1W | 0W | |
30 | UCLA | .36 | 6.2 | 68 | - | .002 | .011 | .045 | .123 | .243 | .264 | .190 | .087 | .028 | .007 | - | - | |
31 | Kentucky | .35 | 6.6 | 60 | - | .005 | .009 | .063 | .167 | .289 | .273 | .130 | .060 | .003 | .001 | - | - | |
32 | Iowa | .32 | 6.5 | 62 | - | .001 | .017 | .080 | .174 | .221 | .250 | .173 | .064 | .018 | .002 | - | - | |
33 | Washington State | .31 | 8.3 | 24 | .009 | .033 | .136 | .263 | .293 | .176 | .071 | .016 | .003 | - | - | - | - | |
34 | Texas Tech | .29 | 7.3 | 49 | .001 | .015 | .048 | .156 | .209 | .259 | .191 | .089 | .029 | .003 | - | - | - | |
35 | North Carolina | .29 | 7.9 | 32 | .005 | .029 | .101 | .226 | .278 | .200 | .104 | .040 | .011 | .006 | - | - | - | |
36 | Maryland | .28 | 7.2 | 53 | - | .003 | .034 | .135 | .237 | .287 | .193 | .086 | .018 | .006 | .001 | - | - | |
37 | Miami | .28 | 7.6 | 39 | .001 | .021 | .086 | .186 | .222 | .233 | .167 | .060 | .019 | .004 | .001 | - | - | |
38 | UCF | .26 | 7.0 | 55 | - | .006 | .043 | .114 | .208 | .238 | .209 | .123 | .049 | .010 | - | - | - | |
39 | West Virginia | .26 | 6.0 | 71 | - | .001 | .013 | .052 | .121 | .185 | .248 | .195 | .115 | .057 | .013 | - | - | |
40 | SMU | .25 | 7.6 | 41 | - | .019 | .070 | .188 | .275 | .230 | .135 | .062 | .017 | .004 | - | - | - | |
41 | James Madison | .24 | 9.6 | 9 | .053 | .205 | .302 | .246 | .142 | .040 | .006 | .006 | - | - | - | - | - | |
42 | NC State | .22 | 7.5 | 42 | .003 | .018 | .073 | .164 | .262 | .238 | .170 | .051 | .020 | .001 | - | - | - | |
43 | Duke | .22 | 7.3 | 48 | - | .013 | .060 | .152 | .248 | .247 | .169 | .081 | .026 | .004 | - | - | - | |
44 | Boise State | .20 | 8.1 | 26 | .001 | .016 | .124 | .271 | .281 | .196 | .082 | .024 | .004 | .001 | - | - | - |
Rk | Team | PFEI | MW | Rk | 12W | 11W | 10W | 9W | 8W | 7W | 6W | 5W | 4W | 3W | 2W | 1W | 0W | |
45 | Air Force | .20 | 8.8 | 16 | .022 | .098 | .258 | .229 | .218 | .116 | .049 | .010 | - | - | - | - | - | |
46 | Liberty | .20 | 10.2 | 4 | .125 | .310 | .339 | .161 | .049 | .014 | .002 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
47 | Kansas | .18 | 6.7 | 58 | - | .002 | .035 | .094 | .178 | .246 | .201 | .165 | .059 | .018 | .001 | .001 | - | |
48 | Virginia Tech | .17 | 7.5 | 44 | .002 | .022 | .077 | .157 | .259 | .240 | .157 | .063 | .016 | .006 | .001 | - | - | |
49 | California | .16 | 6.6 | 59 | - | .005 | .027 | .074 | .180 | .261 | .243 | .130 | .062 | .017 | .001 | - | - | |
50 | South Carolina | .16 | 5.4 | 89 | - | - | - | .010 | .051 | .122 | .265 | .288 | .204 | .058 | .002 | - | - | |
51 | Minnesota | .13 | 5.5 | 84 | - | - | .004 | .013 | .072 | .161 | .255 | .271 | .159 | .053 | .012 | - | - | |
52 | Memphis | .11 | 8.7 | 18 | .011 | .078 | .224 | .269 | .250 | .123 | .040 | .003 | .002 | - | - | - | - | |
53 | Troy | .10 | 8.5 | 20 | .010 | .061 | .171 | .260 | .253 | .156 | .066 | .020 | .002 | .001 | - | - | - | |
54 | Baylor | .08 | 5.5 | 81 | - | - | .003 | .028 | .070 | .162 | .236 | .243 | .165 | .071 | .018 | .004 | - | |
55 | Appalachian State | .06 | 7.5 | 45 | .002 | .015 | .091 | .152 | .263 | .235 | .158 | .067 | .016 | .001 | - | - | - | |
56 | Mississippi State | .06 | 5.1 | 98 | - | - | .001 | .006 | .022 | .105 | .226 | .299 | .236 | .088 | .017 | - | - | |
57 | Tulane | .05 | 8.0 | 31 | .001 | .014 | .096 | .245 | .298 | .203 | .117 | .020 | .005 | .001 | - | - | - | |
58 | Purdue | .05 | 4.4 | 113 | - | - | - | .001 | .016 | .063 | .142 | .255 | .266 | .180 | .071 | .006 | - | |
59 | BYU | .02 | 5.1 | 97 | - | - | .005 | .013 | .050 | .116 | .215 | .242 | .214 | .105 | .035 | .004 | .001 |
Rk | Team | PFEI | MW | Rk | 12W | 11W | 10W | 9W | 8W | 7W | 6W | 5W | 4W | 3W | 2W | 1W | 0W | |
60 | Nebraska | .02 | 5.9 | 74 | - | .001 | .003 | .029 | .084 | .205 | .274 | .234 | .131 | .034 | .005 | - | - | |
61 | Illinois | .02 | 5.5 | 82 | - | - | .002 | .011 | .054 | .159 | .249 | .279 | .160 | .065 | .020 | .001 | - | |
62 | Arkansas | .01 | 4.6 | 110 | - | - | - | .008 | .018 | .055 | .164 | .295 | .262 | .156 | .038 | .004 | - | |
63 | Northwestern | .01 | 4.7 | 108 | - | - | - | .002 | .023 | .085 | .186 | .266 | .245 | .141 | .043 | .009 | - | |
64 | Wake Forest | .00 | 5.9 | 75 | - | .001 | .008 | .034 | .118 | .193 | .258 | .216 | .119 | .041 | .012 | - | - | |
65 | Pittsburgh | -.02 | 6.0 | 70 | - | .003 | .009 | .027 | .101 | .210 | .272 | .230 | .112 | .030 | .006 | - | - | |
66 | Cincinnati | -.03 | 5.3 | 90 | - | - | .004 | .012 | .054 | .150 | .230 | .245 | .185 | .091 | .025 | .004 | - | |
67 | Fresno State | -.03 | 7.2 | 50 | - | - | .041 | .147 | .255 | .271 | .167 | .088 | .024 | .006 | .001 | - | - | |
68 | Louisiana | -.05 | 7.8 | 34 | .004 | .026 | .116 | .205 | .224 | .224 | .139 | .042 | .020 | - | - | - | - | |
69 | Georgia Tech | -.06 | 4.5 | 111 | - | - | - | .001 | .018 | .064 | .154 | .253 | .276 | .164 | .064 | .006 | - | |
70 | Virginia | -.07 | 4.8 | 107 | - | - | - | .007 | .032 | .091 | .178 | .250 | .255 | .132 | .049 | .006 | - | |
71 | Arizona State | -.10 | 4.3 | 117 | - | - | - | .003 | .012 | .062 | .127 | .241 | .251 | .192 | .079 | .031 | .002 | |
72 | Houston | -.11 | 4.0 | 119 | - | - | - | .001 | .010 | .048 | .100 | .194 | .283 | .239 | .101 | .021 | .003 | |
73 | Rutgers | -.12 | 5.0 | 102 | - | - | .001 | .012 | .043 | .104 | .208 | .255 | .230 | .118 | .029 | - | - | |
74 | Wyoming | -.13 | 6.8 | 57 | - | .005 | .032 | .115 | .186 | .256 | .216 | .130 | .045 | .012 | .003 | - | - |
Rk | Team | PFEI | MW | Rk | 12W | 11W | 10W | 9W | 8W | 7W | 6W | 5W | 4W | 3W | 2W | 1W | 0W | |
75 | Colorado | -.13 | 4.4 | 116 | - | - | - | .003 | .012 | .043 | .149 | .246 | .267 | .201 | .065 | .014 | - | |
76 | South Alabama | -.14 | 7.0 | 56 | - | .006 | .028 | .116 | .225 | .254 | .217 | .115 | .035 | .004 | - | - | - | |
77 | Indiana | -.15 | 5.1 | 100 | - | - | .001 | .003 | .020 | .088 | .229 | .306 | .234 | .093 | .022 | .004 | - | |
78 | San Jose State | -.16 | 6.5 | 65 | - | - | .016 | .058 | .137 | .261 | .261 | .173 | .065 | .024 | .005 | - | - | |
79 | Toledo | -.16 | 8.3 | 22 | .004 | .061 | .155 | .246 | .241 | .194 | .066 | .029 | .003 | .001 | - | - | - | |
80 | Western Kentucky | -.17 | 7.4 | 46 | - | .009 | .051 | .169 | .256 | .253 | .164 | .074 | .021 | .003 | - | - | - | |
81 | UTSA | -.18 | 7.6 | 37 | - | .004 | .066 | .195 | .284 | .242 | .132 | .062 | .015 | - | - | - | - | |
82 | Michigan State | -.18 | 4.4 | 115 | - | - | .001 | .001 | .011 | .058 | .160 | .260 | .258 | .172 | .064 | .015 | - | |
83 | Coastal Carolina | -.19 | 6.5 | 63 | .002 | .004 | .018 | .070 | .184 | .227 | .242 | .154 | .068 | .027 | .001 | .003 | - | |
84 | Jacksonville State | -.20 | 7.5 | 43 | .004 | .011 | .069 | .186 | .243 | .253 | .147 | .065 | .021 | .001 | - | - | - | |
85 | Boston College | -.20 | 4.6 | 109 | - | - | .001 | .004 | .018 | .069 | .166 | .246 | .255 | .154 | .073 | .013 | .001 | |
86 | Miami (OH) | -.20 | 7.2 | 51 | - | .008 | .044 | .121 | .235 | .300 | .175 | .089 | .023 | .003 | .002 | - | - | |
87 | Stanford | -.21 | 3.9 | 122 | - | - | - | - | .005 | .035 | .111 | .198 | .260 | .216 | .139 | .036 | - | |
88 | Ohio | -.22 | 7.6 | 36 | .001 | .013 | .068 | .167 | .274 | .254 | .140 | .065 | .016 | .002 | - | - | - | |
89 | Syracuse | -.24 | 5.7 | 77 | - | - | .004 | .029 | .078 | .174 | .253 | .230 | .147 | .065 | .015 | .004 | .001 |
Rk | Team | PFEI | MW | Rk | 12W | 11W | 10W | 9W | 8W | 7W | 6W | 5W | 4W | 3W | 2W | 1W | 0W | |
90 | Marshall | -.24 | 6.3 | 66 | - | .001 | .006 | .048 | .139 | .246 | .287 | .162 | .079 | .027 | .004 | .001 | - | |
91 | San Diego State | -.31 | 5.5 | 86 | - | .001 | .004 | .013 | .061 | .138 | .273 | .268 | .157 | .072 | .012 | - | .001 | |
92 | UNLV | -.34 | 5.4 | 88 | - | .001 | .002 | .018 | .054 | .186 | .226 | .247 | .165 | .077 | .023 | .001 | - | |
93 | Georgia State | -.35 | 6.2 | 67 | - | .003 | .013 | .051 | .124 | .198 | .272 | .203 | .103 | .027 | .006 | - | - | |
94 | Army | -.35 | 6.5 | 64 | - | - | .028 | .073 | .172 | .253 | .251 | .144 | .063 | .011 | .004 | .001 | - | |
95 | Florida Atlantic | -.37 | 7.6 | 38 | - | .021 | .092 | .179 | .244 | .231 | .142 | .058 | .027 | .005 | .001 | - | - | |
96 | Vanderbilt | -.43 | 2.8 | 131 | - | - | - | - | - | - | .010 | .049 | .187 | .322 | .310 | .112 | .010 | |
97 | Georgia Southern | -.44 | 4.4 | 112 | - | - | .002 | .004 | .019 | .047 | .140 | .234 | .267 | .180 | .085 | .020 | .002 | |
98 | Arkansas State | -.45 | 5.2 | 95 | - | - | .001 | .009 | .038 | .141 | .211 | .259 | .223 | .092 | .022 | .004 | - | |
99 | Texas State | -.45 | 5.9 | 73 | - | .001 | .013 | .035 | .113 | .193 | .227 | .201 | .152 | .055 | .010 | - | - | |
100 | Navy | -.46 | 5.5 | 85 | - | - | .001 | .015 | .069 | .172 | .248 | .260 | .151 | .071 | .012 | .001 | - | |
101 | Buffalo | -.46 | 7.2 | 52 | - | .005 | .042 | .138 | .271 | .264 | .176 | .086 | .016 | .002 | - | - | - | |
102 | Utah State | -.48 | 5.0 | 103 | - | - | - | .002 | .025 | .092 | .189 | .298 | .248 | .105 | .037 | .004 | - | |
103 | Middle Tennessee | -.49 | 5.4 | 87 | - | - | - | .011 | .055 | .168 | .263 | .252 | .165 | .063 | .018 | .005 | - | |
104 | Northern Illinois | -.50 | 6.1 | 69 | - | - | .005 | .045 | .118 | .230 | .257 | .224 | .096 | .019 | .005 | .001 | - |
Rk | Team | PFEI | MW | Rk | 12W | 11W | 10W | 9W | 8W | 7W | 6W | 5W | 4W | 3W | 2W | 1W | 0W | |
105 | UAB | -.51 | 6.0 | 72 | - | .004 | .009 | .050 | .132 | .201 | .240 | .182 | .129 | .042 | .009 | .001 | .001 | |
106 | Colorado State | -.51 | 4.9 | 104 | - | - | .001 | .003 | .022 | .117 | .223 | .272 | .231 | .097 | .031 | .003 | - | |
107 | Tulsa | -.52 | 5.8 | 76 | - | .001 | .007 | .041 | .109 | .193 | .225 | .221 | .132 | .054 | .016 | .001 | - | |
108 | Old Dominion | -.52 | 4.2 | 118 | - | - | - | .001 | .016 | .046 | .132 | .236 | .222 | .197 | .121 | .024 | .005 | |
109 | South Florida | -.52 | 5.1 | 99 | - | - | .003 | .009 | .040 | .095 | .217 | .264 | .214 | .122 | .033 | .003 | - | |
110 | East Carolina | -.53 | 5.6 | 78 | .001 | - | .008 | .034 | .080 | .149 | .251 | .237 | .170 | .048 | .021 | .001 | - | |
111 | Rice | -.59 | 5.3 | 92 | - | - | .002 | .014 | .064 | .140 | .259 | .240 | .184 | .069 | .025 | .003 | - | |
112 | Bowling Green | -.59 | 5.6 | 80 | - | - | .002 | .027 | .071 | .169 | .256 | .223 | .162 | .068 | .021 | .001 | - | |
113 | North Texas | -.60 | 4.4 | 114 | - | - | - | .003 | .023 | .067 | .159 | .237 | .249 | .182 | .061 | .016 | .003 | |
114 | Sam Houston | -.60 | 5.3 | 91 | - | - | .009 | .017 | .079 | .135 | .221 | .216 | .205 | .082 | .031 | .005 | - | |
115 | Western Michigan | -.61 | 5.6 | 79 | - | - | .001 | .015 | .082 | .161 | .232 | .279 | .154 | .065 | .009 | .002 | - | |
116 | Ball State | -.62 | 5.0 | 101 | - | - | - | .007 | .039 | .116 | .223 | .238 | .205 | .114 | .051 | .007 | - | |
117 | New Mexico State | -.62 | 5.1 | 96 | - | - | - | .012 | .034 | .123 | .227 | .277 | .199 | .093 | .028 | .007 | - | |
118 | Central Michigan | -.65 | 5.2 | 94 | - | - | .003 | .013 | .043 | .135 | .212 | .251 | .197 | .102 | .036 | .008 | - | |
119 | Southern Mississippi | -.66 | 4.0 | 120 | - | - | - | - | .005 | .038 | .096 | .218 | .267 | .207 | .131 | .035 | .003 |
Rk | Team | PFEI | MW | Rk | 12W | 11W | 10W | 9W | 8W | 7W | 6W | 5W | 4W | 3W | 2W | 1W | 0W | |
120 | Hawaii | -.67 | 4.8 | 106 | - | .001 | .002 | .001 | .027 | .096 | .172 | .285 | .236 | .126 | .046 | .008 | - | |
121 | Louisiana Tech | -.67 | 5.3 | 93 | - | - | .001 | .016 | .055 | .141 | .248 | .246 | .186 | .081 | .021 | .004 | .001 | |
122 | Nevada | -.74 | 3.2 | 125 | - | - | - | - | .001 | .013 | .052 | .101 | .221 | .271 | .255 | .077 | .009 | |
123 | Eastern Michigan | -.79 | 4.9 | 105 | - | - | - | .004 | .026 | .117 | .200 | .272 | .200 | .125 | .044 | .011 | .001 | |
124 | UL Monroe | -.82 | 2.9 | 129 | - | - | - | - | .001 | .002 | .017 | .088 | .223 | .296 | .243 | .103 | .027 | |
125 | Charlotte | -.85 | 3.1 | 126 | - | - | - | - | .001 | .007 | .032 | .099 | .232 | .285 | .247 | .085 | .012 | |
126 | New Mexico | -.86 | 2.7 | 132 | - | - | - | - | - | .001 | .013 | .061 | .168 | .281 | .300 | .153 | .023 | |
127 | UTEP | -.90 | 3.8 | 123 | - | - | - | - | .002 | .023 | .099 | .208 | .263 | .246 | .123 | .033 | .003 | |
128 | Temple | -.91 | 2.9 | 130 | - | - | - | - | - | .005 | .025 | .085 | .203 | .271 | .242 | .142 | .027 | |
129 | Connecticut | -.94 | 3.7 | 124 | - | - | - | - | .002 | .013 | .058 | .167 | .285 | .271 | .161 | .040 | .003 | |
130 | Florida International | -.94 | 3.9 | 121 | - | - | - | .001 | .006 | .033 | .097 | .206 | .256 | .246 | .124 | .028 | .003 | |
131 | Kennesaw State | -1.00 | 3.1 | 127 | - | - | - | - | - | .003 | .026 | .091 | .210 | .301 | .243 | .113 | .013 | |
132 | Kent State | -1.06 | 3.0 | 128 | - | - | - | - | - | .003 | .023 | .091 | .219 | .314 | .243 | .098 | .009 | |
133 | Akron | -1.21 | 2.3 | 134 | - | - | - | - | - | - | .003 | .028 | .121 | .272 | .312 | .211 | .053 | |
134 | Massachusetts | -1.28 | 2.3 | 133 | - | - | - | - | - | - | .002 | .010 | .131 | .314 | .337 | .182 | .024 |