2024 Preseason Win Total Projections

2025 :: 2024 :: 2023 :: 2022

Win total projections are calculated from individual game projections based on preseason team ratings (PFEI) and represent the range of outcomes that each team should expect to have against its set of regular season opponents (including games against FCS opponents), assuming that team and opponent ratings remain stable for the duration of the season. Mean wins (MW) are equal to the sum of projected individual game win likelihoods. See also: 2024 PFEI Preseason Ratings

RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
1Georgia1.4110.61.185.388.292.103.028.004-------
2Ohio State1.3110.52.149.377.332.131.011--------
3Oregon1.3010.26.087.317.345.187.057.006.001------
4Michigan1.2810.25.085.287.344.218.059.007-------
5Alabama1.219.98.081.247.310.239.095.026.001.001-----
6Notre Dame.9510.53.166.383.282.138.030.001-------
7LSU.939.211.030.145.285.275.186.062.014.003-----
8Penn State.929.310.032.164.273.262.166.081.020.001.001----
9Texas.929.114.014.097.232.339.218.082.015.003-----
10Oklahoma.858.421.003.045.143.277.266.180.072.012.002----
11Washington.848.619.010.056.187.295.256.144.041.011-----
12Kansas State.8210.07.104.266.308.207.087.021.006.001-----
13Clemson.708.915.011.087.240.286.222.104.040.009.001----
14Tennessee.648.325.002.028.137.283.311.168.060.010.001----
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
15Texas A&M.638.127.005.045.102.241.283.201.094.023.006----
16Utah.629.213.036.131.268.291.152.081.030.009.002----
17Missouri.618.717.011.057.196.319.250.133.032.002-----
18Ole Miss.618.028-.029.104.243.309.192.089.030.004----
19Florida State.598.323.005.040.197.257.230.174.074.020.003----
20USC.566.561.001.004.016.068.166.236.267.161.059.019.003--
21Oregon State.559.212.020.125.283.293.184.074.020.001-----
22Auburn.497.347-.006.035.121.290.313.172.053.007.002.001--
23Iowa State.498.029.004.041.137.199.250.209.126.026.007.001---
24Wisconsin.467.154.001.005.050.128.235.269.183.093.034.002---
25Louisville.458.030-.035.127.224.277.187.108.035.004.003---
26Oklahoma State.437.933.003.023.103.241.273.208.110.030.006.003---
27Arizona.397.835.002.024.095.193.257.226.148.042.013----
28TCU.397.640.001.018.078.167.233.257.150.061.027.008---
29Florida.395.583-.001.006.017.075.157.234.253.163.080.014--
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
30UCLA.366.268-.002.011.045.123.243.264.190.087.028.007--
31Kentucky.356.660-.005.009.063.167.289.273.130.060.003.001--
32Iowa.326.562-.001.017.080.174.221.250.173.064.018.002--
33Washington State.318.324.009.033.136.263.293.176.071.016.003----
34Texas Tech.297.349.001.015.048.156.209.259.191.089.029.003---
35North Carolina.297.932.005.029.101.226.278.200.104.040.011.006---
36Maryland.287.253-.003.034.135.237.287.193.086.018.006.001--
37Miami.287.639.001.021.086.186.222.233.167.060.019.004.001--
38UCF.267.055-.006.043.114.208.238.209.123.049.010---
39West Virginia.266.071-.001.013.052.121.185.248.195.115.057.013--
40SMU.257.641-.019.070.188.275.230.135.062.017.004---
41James Madison.249.69.053.205.302.246.142.040.006.006-----
42NC State.227.542.003.018.073.164.262.238.170.051.020.001---
43Duke.227.348-.013.060.152.248.247.169.081.026.004---
44Boise State.208.126.001.016.124.271.281.196.082.024.004.001---
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
45Air Force.208.816.022.098.258.229.218.116.049.010-----
46Liberty.2010.24.125.310.339.161.049.014.002------
47Kansas.186.758-.002.035.094.178.246.201.165.059.018.001.001-
48Virginia Tech.177.544.002.022.077.157.259.240.157.063.016.006.001--
49California.166.659-.005.027.074.180.261.243.130.062.017.001--
50South Carolina.165.489---.010.051.122.265.288.204.058.002--
51Minnesota.135.584--.004.013.072.161.255.271.159.053.012--
52Memphis.118.718.011.078.224.269.250.123.040.003.002----
53Troy.108.520.010.061.171.260.253.156.066.020.002.001---
54Baylor.085.581--.003.028.070.162.236.243.165.071.018.004-
55Appalachian State.067.545.002.015.091.152.263.235.158.067.016.001---
56Mississippi State.065.198--.001.006.022.105.226.299.236.088.017--
57Tulane.058.031.001.014.096.245.298.203.117.020.005.001---
58Purdue.054.4113---.001.016.063.142.255.266.180.071.006-
59BYU.025.197--.005.013.050.116.215.242.214.105.035.004.001
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
60Nebraska.025.974-.001.003.029.084.205.274.234.131.034.005--
61Illinois.025.582--.002.011.054.159.249.279.160.065.020.001-
62Arkansas.014.6110---.008.018.055.164.295.262.156.038.004-
63Northwestern.014.7108---.002.023.085.186.266.245.141.043.009-
64Wake Forest.005.975-.001.008.034.118.193.258.216.119.041.012--
65Pittsburgh-.026.070-.003.009.027.101.210.272.230.112.030.006--
66Cincinnati-.035.390--.004.012.054.150.230.245.185.091.025.004-
67Fresno State-.037.250--.041.147.255.271.167.088.024.006.001--
68Louisiana-.057.834.004.026.116.205.224.224.139.042.020----
69Georgia Tech-.064.5111---.001.018.064.154.253.276.164.064.006-
70Virginia-.074.8107---.007.032.091.178.250.255.132.049.006-
71Arizona State-.104.3117---.003.012.062.127.241.251.192.079.031.002
72Houston-.114.0119---.001.010.048.100.194.283.239.101.021.003
73Rutgers-.125.0102--.001.012.043.104.208.255.230.118.029--
74Wyoming-.136.857-.005.032.115.186.256.216.130.045.012.003--
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
75Colorado-.134.4116---.003.012.043.149.246.267.201.065.014-
76South Alabama-.147.056-.006.028.116.225.254.217.115.035.004---
77Indiana-.155.1100--.001.003.020.088.229.306.234.093.022.004-
78San Jose State-.166.565--.016.058.137.261.261.173.065.024.005--
79Toledo-.168.322.004.061.155.246.241.194.066.029.003.001---
80Western Kentucky-.177.446-.009.051.169.256.253.164.074.021.003---
81UTSA-.187.637-.004.066.195.284.242.132.062.015----
82Michigan State-.184.4115--.001.001.011.058.160.260.258.172.064.015-
83Coastal Carolina-.196.563.002.004.018.070.184.227.242.154.068.027.001.003-
84Jacksonville State-.207.543.004.011.069.186.243.253.147.065.021.001---
85Boston College-.204.6109--.001.004.018.069.166.246.255.154.073.013.001
86Miami (OH)-.207.251-.008.044.121.235.300.175.089.023.003.002--
87Stanford-.213.9122----.005.035.111.198.260.216.139.036-
88Ohio-.227.636.001.013.068.167.274.254.140.065.016.002---
89Syracuse-.245.777--.004.029.078.174.253.230.147.065.015.004.001
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
90Marshall-.246.366-.001.006.048.139.246.287.162.079.027.004.001-
91San Diego State-.315.586-.001.004.013.061.138.273.268.157.072.012-.001
92UNLV-.345.488-.001.002.018.054.186.226.247.165.077.023.001-
93Georgia State-.356.267-.003.013.051.124.198.272.203.103.027.006--
94Army-.356.564--.028.073.172.253.251.144.063.011.004.001-
95Florida Atlantic-.377.638-.021.092.179.244.231.142.058.027.005.001--
96Vanderbilt-.432.8131------.010.049.187.322.310.112.010
97Georgia Southern-.444.4112--.002.004.019.047.140.234.267.180.085.020.002
98Arkansas State-.455.295--.001.009.038.141.211.259.223.092.022.004-
99Texas State-.455.973-.001.013.035.113.193.227.201.152.055.010--
100Navy-.465.585--.001.015.069.172.248.260.151.071.012.001-
101Buffalo-.467.252-.005.042.138.271.264.176.086.016.002---
102Utah State-.485.0103---.002.025.092.189.298.248.105.037.004-
103Middle Tennessee-.495.487---.011.055.168.263.252.165.063.018.005-
104Northern Illinois-.506.169--.005.045.118.230.257.224.096.019.005.001-
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
105UAB-.516.072-.004.009.050.132.201.240.182.129.042.009.001.001
106Colorado State-.514.9104--.001.003.022.117.223.272.231.097.031.003-
107Tulsa-.525.876-.001.007.041.109.193.225.221.132.054.016.001-
108Old Dominion-.524.2118---.001.016.046.132.236.222.197.121.024.005
109South Florida-.525.199--.003.009.040.095.217.264.214.122.033.003-
110East Carolina-.535.678.001-.008.034.080.149.251.237.170.048.021.001-
111Rice-.595.392--.002.014.064.140.259.240.184.069.025.003-
112Bowling Green-.595.680--.002.027.071.169.256.223.162.068.021.001-
113North Texas-.604.4114---.003.023.067.159.237.249.182.061.016.003
114Sam Houston-.605.391--.009.017.079.135.221.216.205.082.031.005-
115Western Michigan-.615.679--.001.015.082.161.232.279.154.065.009.002-
116Ball State-.625.0101---.007.039.116.223.238.205.114.051.007-
117New Mexico State-.625.196---.012.034.123.227.277.199.093.028.007-
118Central Michigan-.655.294--.003.013.043.135.212.251.197.102.036.008-
119Southern Mississippi-.664.0120----.005.038.096.218.267.207.131.035.003
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
120Hawaii-.674.8106-.001.002.001.027.096.172.285.236.126.046.008-
121Louisiana Tech-.675.393--.001.016.055.141.248.246.186.081.021.004.001
122Nevada-.743.2125----.001.013.052.101.221.271.255.077.009
123Eastern Michigan-.794.9105---.004.026.117.200.272.200.125.044.011.001
124UL Monroe-.822.9129----.001.002.017.088.223.296.243.103.027
125Charlotte-.853.1126----.001.007.032.099.232.285.247.085.012
126New Mexico-.862.7132-----.001.013.061.168.281.300.153.023
127UTEP-.903.8123----.002.023.099.208.263.246.123.033.003
128Temple-.912.9130-----.005.025.085.203.271.242.142.027
129Connecticut-.943.7124----.002.013.058.167.285.271.161.040.003
130Florida International-.943.9121---.001.006.033.097.206.256.246.124.028.003
131Kennesaw State-1.003.1127-----.003.026.091.210.301.243.113.013
132Kent State-1.063.0128-----.003.023.091.219.314.243.098.009
133Akron-1.212.3134------.003.028.121.272.312.211.053
134Massachusetts-1.282.3133------.002.010.131.314.337.182.024