2025 Preseason Win Total Projections

2025 :: 2024 :: 2023 :: 2022

Win total projections are calculated from individual game projections based on preseason team ratings (PFEI) and represent the range of outcomes that each team should expect to have against its set of regular season opponents (including games against FCS opponents), assuming that team and opponent ratings remain stable for the duration of the season. Mean wins (MW) are equal to the sum of projected individual game win likelihoods. See also: 2025 PFEI Preseason Ratings

RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
1Ohio State1.5411.11.399.407.153.040.001--------
2Georgia1.1810.04.096.238.317.236.086.022.005------
3Oregon1.1310.23.115.328.299.173.073.012-------
4Notre Dame1.1010.72.235.343.282.113.021.005.001------
5Alabama1.099.77.045.198.306.260.140.044.006.001-----
6Texas1.069.38.028.130.311.290.172.061.007.001-----
7Penn State1.059.76.028.193.359.286.101.029.004------
8Ole Miss.909.29.027.154.259.273.206.062.016.003-----
9Michigan.809.012.012.092.227.348.208.085.028------
10Tennessee.778.813.008.077.217.279.250.124.039.006-----
11LSU.768.127.003.035.120.255.238.229.089.024.006.001---
12Clemson.739.210.033.133.262.290.166.092.016.006.002----
13Texas A&M.637.735.001.012.082.171.291.256.134.043.009.001---
14USC.618.030.003.030.085.226.308.201.121.021.004.001---
15Indiana.618.421.001.032.167.279.274.177.059.010.001----
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
16Oklahoma.596.956-.006.024.091.220.261.237.119.035.007---
17Kansas State.598.420.015.075.161.248.232.157.084.023.005----
18Louisville.578.616.012.079.202.253.256.137.051.006.003.001---
19Iowa.567.147-.010.044.124.212.253.209.098.043.006.001--
20Florida.566.562-.001.014.051.164.241.265.181.069.011.003--
21Minnesota.558.031.001.011.096.254.308.212.090.023.005----
22Iowa State.558.225.013.047.142.237.258.178.093.025.007----
23Miami.558.324.008.057.159.265.262.165.068.012.003.001---
24South Carolina.546.857-.005.032.091.197.253.240.129.045.008---
25BYU.548.617.020.078.199.265.222.141.060.015-----
26SMU.508.226.010.050.141.241.231.189.102.025.009.002---
27Arizona State.508.322.011.050.167.231.271.177.074.014.005----
28Boise State.459.95.035.303.357.206.077.018.003.001-----
29Wisconsin.445.691--.005.017.062.170.268.271.156.044.007--
30Missouri.437.440.005.012.057.166.241.263.155.076.020.005---
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
31Baylor.437.439.001.020.086.168.227.217.160.089.021.011---
32Washington.426.955-.003.027.105.208.274.207.128.041.006.001--
33TCU.416.954-.004.037.129.220.221.195.125.044.021.004--
34Utah.397.245.001.008.057.164.212.241.175.104.027.011---
35Auburn.386.564-.001.016.058.161.249.280.154.074.006.001--
36Nebraska.377.051-.007.033.102.196.277.237.110.033.005---
37Kentucky.345.786--.003.026.086.176.269.244.133.053.009.001-
38Illinois.327.053-.004.028.109.192.298.208.115.037.009---
39Army.299.211.022.111.279.289.200.085.011.002.001----
40Virginia Tech.287.437.003.020.068.164.246.241.158.065.027.008---
41Texas Tech.257.148-.009.043.116.212.258.204.113.036.006.003--
42Arkansas.245.298---.013.035.117.219.274.222.094.023.003-
43Tulane.248.615.003.069.210.269.258.134.044.009.003.001---
44Cincinnati.246.661-.005.019.091.161.235.241.156.067.023.002--
45UCF.236.758.001.004.031.109.181.251.205.142.058.014.003.001-
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
46Kansas.206.566-.002.024.078.148.254.229.162.081.020.002--
47UCLA.205.495--.001.017.059.163.221.240.179.088.027.005-
48Colorado.176.371-.001.011.059.153.220.237.186.098.030.005--
49Navy.148.714.004.048.199.313.281.112.039.003.001----
50Rutgers.125.0100--.001.006.037.100.216.296.220.090.032.002-
51Georgia Tech.116.273-.001.010.044.130.225.260.194.101.030.005--
52Syracuse.105.594---.009.061.174.261.253.164.059.018.001-
53Maryland.095.980--.002.028.094.200.263.227.126.049.011--
54North Carolina.086.660-.003.034.074.178.253.213.152.070.020.003--
55California.076.468-.001.020.071.149.240.250.153.091.020.005--
56Memphis.078.618.008.072.190.261.236.157.062.011.003----
57James Madison.067.734.002.028.096.184.253.207.129.073.023.005---
58Pittsburgh.066.175-.002.009.049.108.211.250.215.107.042.006.001-
59Oklahoma State.065.689--.007.014.061.167.246.251.176.066.012--
60West Virginia.055.396-.002.006.025.058.150.245.228.154.101.027.004-
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
61Boston College.045.690--.002.023.070.146.258.245.168.070.013.005-
62Washington State.047.341-.005.056.150.241.279.169.074.024.002---
63NC State.036.077-.001.009.037.109.200.270.208.112.044.010--
64Vanderbilt.034.6115---.001.014.064.162.272.295.153.038.001-
65Mississippi State.024.3118---.003.005.038.115.275.293.204.057.010-
66Duke-.015.979-.001.003.042.104.200.232.227.127.052.012--
67UNLV-.038.129.005.039.107.245.259.195.106.036.007.001---
68Florida State-.035.592--.002.016.066.154.255.237.175.087.007.001-
69Marshall-.037.733-.019.091.198.255.257.129.042.008.001---
70Houston-.065.593-.001.005.024.082.141.238.241.173.068.024.002.001
71Wake Forest-.066.759-.006.016.079.179.259.233.171.043.014---
72Louisiana-.077.932.003.025.117.220.255.219.109.046.003.002.001--
73Ohio-.107.438-.014.057.165.258.239.173.067.020.007---
74Michigan State-.113.9126---.001.003.022.082.175.263.293.123.035.003
75Virginia-.125.687-.001.003.021.098.161.260.231.132.075.016.002-
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
76Oregon State-.156.174--.009.042.117.237.262.198.103.025.006.001-
77Miami (OH)-.157.146-.006.043.132.226.253.199.097.037.006.001--
78Texas State-.167.243-.010.052.126.231.250.189.094.039.008.001--
79Fresno State-.177.244.001.011.054.147.218.276.191.072.024.006---
80Northwestern-.193.7127----.001.008.067.171.291.314.125.021.002
81Toledo-.217.536-.008.061.185.246.274.155.053.014.004---
82South Alabama-.217.050-.010.044.119.219.258.198.105.036.009.002--
83Jacksonville State-.228.519.006.042.157.298.274.152.058.012.001----
84Arizona-.234.0123---.002.010.027.111.214.288.216.108.022.002
85Stanford-.243.9125---.001.008.020.096.201.279.213.129.044.009
86Western Kentucky-.258.128.001.028.133.244.282.186.090.025.008.003---
87UTSA-.276.467-.002.021.076.152.235.244.174.079.015.002--
88Air Force-.276.369-.002.016.073.136.249.257.170.064.026.007--
89San Jose State-.307.052-.006.033.115.220.261.208.113.034.008.002--
90Liberty-.308.323.007.049.153.255.265.176.074.017.003.001---
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
91Old Dominion-.325.785--.003.024.087.190.251.209.153.068.012.003-
92Northern Illinois-.327.149-.003.049.118.222.279.197.103.023.005.001--
93East Carolina-.335.881--.003.023.084.177.280.238.128.051.016--
94Appalachian State-.346.565.001-.022.080.165.249.238.159.062.019.004.001-
95Georgia Southern-.346.176--.007.041.105.215.261.205.121.038.006.001-
96Coastal Carolina-.345.688--.005.022.094.186.222.230.155.059.023.003.001
97Buffalo-.397.242-.011.040.137.233.264.183.103.023.005.001--
98Purdue-.402.8133------.011.059.193.341.305.084.007
99Troy-.425.883-.001.004.030.098.183.283.209.133.045.013.001-
100South Florida-.425.0101--.001.003.030.119.206.276.232.109.021.003-
101Bowling Green-.436.563-.002.018.062.156.247.269.158.061.027---
102North Texas-.445.978-.001.011.031.122.204.265.197.106.047.013.003-
103Sam Houston-.476.372--.009.062.146.204.239.206.102.027.003.002-
104Colorado State-.495.199---.009.058.122.224.220.204.116.039.008-
105Western Michigan-.495.884-.002.006.025.088.183.251.248.129.053.013.002-
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
106Wyoming-.495.397--.003.012.048.141.230.239.197.095.029.005.001
107Georgia State-.504.2119--.001.002.018.048.132.211.240.211.112.023.002
108Connecticut-.555.882--.002.027.092.185.254.229.152.041.018--
109Utah State-.554.8108--.001.007.025.086.187.268.263.122.037.004-
110Nevada-.555.0103---.006.040.100.201.256.234.120.041.002-
111UAB-.585.0102--.001.006.044.116.208.253.199.122.040.009.002
112Rice-.604.9104--.002.012.034.122.203.241.203.131.038.011.003
113Eastern Michigan-.604.6113--.001.005.035.084.181.227.223.163.064.017-
114San Diego State-.614.6116---.003.023.083.170.244.231.160.071.015-
115Florida Atlantic-.624.9107--.002.003.035.110.182.278.239.110.034.006.001
116Hawaii-.654.7109---.009.029.071.174.266.249.130.061.011-
117Louisiana Tech-.666.370--.012.056.149.227.257.176.088.029.006--
118UL Monroe-.674.7110--.001.003.026.076.173.258.221.173.057.012-
119Arkansas State-.674.6114---.002.025.047.185.261.258.157.054.010.001
120Ball State-.714.6112---.003.018.091.179.233.273.142.051.010-
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
121New Mexico-.724.1121----.008.035.132.212.293.225.081.012.002
122Central Michigan-.734.9106--.002.006.031.098.225.251.233.117.032.004.001
123Charlotte-.743.7128----.002.019.093.158.280.252.144.046.006
124Temple-.833.4130----.001.009.052.143.256.294.188.052.005
125Florida International-.844.9105-.001-.005.033.102.224.262.213.113.041.006-
126Akron-.844.7111---.001.020.086.174.255.269.134.049.012-
127Tulsa-.943.0132-----.002.022.084.227.275.266.105.019
128UTEP-.974.5117---.003.017.090.178.231.252.143.069.017-
129Delaware-1.003.6129--.001-.004.020.062.178.250.264.168.049.004
129Missouri State-1.004.0124----.003.033.122.218.280.210.106.025.003
131Middle Tennessee-1.024.1122---.001.006.040.110.229.275.196.107.033.003
132New Mexico State-1.084.2120---.002.013.054.120.228.270.192.096.019.006
133Southern Mississippi-1.122.4135-----.003.007.059.109.263.314.193.052
134Massachusetts-1.192.8134-----.003.018.077.209.264.272.122.035
135Kennesaw State-1.203.4131---.001.002.008.057.131.255.267.194.070.015
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
136Kent State-1.252.4136-----.002.003.034.125.272.339.186.039