2026 Preseason Win Total Projections

2026 :: 2025 :: 2024 :: 2023 :: 2022

Win total projections are calculated from individual game projections based on preseason team ratings (PFEI) and represent the range of outcomes that each team should expect to have against its set of regular season opponents (including games against FCS opponents), assuming that team and opponent ratings remain stable for the duration of the season. Mean wins (MW) are equal to the sum of projected individual game win likelihoods. See also: 2026 PFEI Preseason Ratings

RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
1Ohio State1.5210.45.148.351.302.138.056.005-------
2Oregon1.4010.63.136.399.325.116.019.005-------
3Georgia1.3410.44.173.330.306.149.033.009-------
4Notre Dame1.2911.31.491.361.129.018.001--------
5Indiana1.1410.08.061.258.334.234.096.015.002------
6Alabama1.079.212.031.127.266.295.180.077.020.003.001----
7Utah.9710.36.122.332.330.148.057.008.003------
8Ole Miss.938.515.008.068.184.291.235.137.061.013.002.001---
9Texas Tech.8910.62.218.368.268.109.030.006.001------
10Michigan.898.124.001.016.101.242.304.228.089.019-----
11Penn State.899.811.064.193.340.251.111.038.003------
12Miami.889.99.044.290.333.229.088.012.003.001-----
13Texas.887.932.002.024.086.237.251.230.117.039.013.001---
14Texas A&M.858.317.009.048.159.214.269.189.085.023.003.001---
15Oklahoma.807.642.002.020.074.162.248.262.174.045.008.005---
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
16Tennessee.808.219.008.043.136.251.253.177.093.029.008.001.001--
17USC.797.838-.013.078.218.276.248.126.033.008----
18Washington.788.025.005.022.105.218.284.215.115.033.003----
19Iowa.748.221.002.037.130.260.261.196.089.019.006----
20BYU.617.931.002.025.106.251.269.189.103.038.014.002.001--
21Kansas State.608.814.019.097.192.276.217.129.051.016.003----
22Vanderbilt.596.956-.002.031.103.208.263.231.116.041.005---
23Missouri.566.759-.006.023.087.175.256.269.121.050.011.002--
24LSU.556.564-.008.028.065.191.243.233.158.059.013.002--
25Illinois.527.641-.007.052.215.290.263.118.042.010.003---
26Auburn.516.467--.012.056.148.246.263.190.071.013.001--
27Louisville.508.027.004.028.104.236.265.203.103.042.013.002---
28Florida State.477.251-.005.047.124.215.263.203.107.024.010.001.001-
29Clemson.478.220.003.039.136.251.251.203.085.024.008----
30SMU.448.318.002.026.154.269.279.179.079.011.001----
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
31TCU.437.447.001.010.048.137.237.272.179.085.025.005.001--
32South Carolina.435.978-.001.007.034.101.226.263.228.101.035.004--
33Iowa State.437.348-.010.054.148.260.234.191.079.019.005---
34Arizona.386.662.001.007.014.072.188.229.260.136.071.019.003--
35Florida.365.392-.002.002.009.050.141.257.232.201.088.017.001-
36Pittsburgh.337.930.003.032.091.245.244.223.121.033.005.002.001--
37NC State.337.933.003.035.102.224.255.212.108.054.005.002---
38James Madison.2910.17.095.270.318.214.085.015.002.001-----
39Arkansas.284.7107---.002.020.063.171.298.266.138.042--
40Kansas.286.660--.026.071.158.276.244.157.055.013---
41Wisconsin.276.468-.003.016.056.146.256.277.167.065.014---
42Kentucky.275.099--.001.011.037.096.193.280.235.118.028.001-
43Arizona State.266.369-.004.015.068.151.227.253.183.076.021.001.001-
44Nebraska.255.586--.001.009.056.165.278.296.146.046.003--
45Cincinnati.246.273-.001.015.037.134.218.249.207.108.029.002--
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
46Washington State.236.958-.001.014.090.233.296.214.103.040.007.002--
47Virginia.227.740.003.025.079.204.252.215.155.053.013.001---
48Mississippi State.224.8103---.004.029.082.176.250.270.153.036--
49Baylor.206.075--.013.043.140.173.250.223.121.031.006--
50Georgia Tech.206.270-.001.017.042.148.242.245.196.082.024.002.001-
51Minnesota.205.684-.001.001.015.048.187.275.272.151.046.004--
52Wake Forest.196.661-.001.027.092.164.250.228.153.068.015.002--
53Boise State.197.250--.036.128.292.266.181.078.014.005---
54Duke.176.272.001.002.009.052.145.219.258.178.094.033.009--
55Tulane.148.028.002.033.118.224.271.216.095.027.014----
56Houston.136.565-.002.016.059.145.273.248.163.076.017.001--
57South Florida.108.913.016.102.213.295.222.112.037.003-----
58Northwestern.094.9100---.004.021.081.239.299.233.100.023--
59Maryland.085.587--.003.014.062.158.276.238.154.083.010.002-
60UCLA.085.393--.003.017.059.129.242.261.174.090.020.005-
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
61Toledo.079.810.073.229.298.256.106.031.005.002-----
62North Texas.078.123.002.029.106.252.295.201.093.020.002----
63Memphis.057.836-.023.090.196.285.243.123.029.010.001---
64UCF.045.979--.013.037.099.188.244.226.140.035.017.001-
65East Carolina.048.122-.024.107.258.294.209.079.026.003----
66Navy.037.934.001.008.092.232.274.232.124.032.005----
67Rutgers.015.196---.005.026.112.192.308.224.120.011.002-
68Michigan State-.024.0120----.009.030.103.183.302.238.107.027.001
69Army-.027.929.002.033.108.209.262.199.107.060.018.002---
70UTSA-.027.644-.010.069.166.259.258.161.060.013.004---
71Old Dominion-.038.316.007.052.152.237.246.174.091.029.012----
72San Diego State-.066.174-.001.006.044.105.225.266.195.111.033.010.003.001
73California-.075.489--.004.019.078.154.250.232.147.090.021.005-
74West Virginia-.074.8104---.007.020.080.198.270.249.134.036.006-
75Virginia Tech-.085.098--.004.016.044.109.193.252.220.114.040.008-
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
76Purdue-.103.4132-----.006.054.140.251.296.182.068.003
77UNLV-.127.935.006.028.099.209.277.228.104.038.010.001---
78Fresno State-.146.076--.004.039.123.194.288.211.113.024.004--
79Colorado-.153.9121---.001.008.025.104.195.263.238.139.026.001
80Boston College-.223.8126----.004.024.079.190.282.248.138.031.004
81North Carolina-.233.6130----.003.012.059.167.288.278.147.044.002
82Air Force-.237.837.003.035.087.185.247.236.126.060.017.004---
83Stanford-.243.7128-----.018.064.174.270.267.153.051.003
84Oklahoma State-.253.9124---.001.007.026.080.179.310.248.119.026.004
85Western Michigan-.257.645-.007.055.164.300.256.149.050.014.005---
86Syracuse-.263.9123---.001.004.030.091.177.286.234.142.034.001
87Ohio-.288.026.003.032.113.236.253.212.102.036.013----
88Texas State-.284.8102--.001.006.021.099.195.271.233.122.043.009-
89Utah State-.284.5112---.001.013.065.164.260.266.166.057.008-
90Marshall-.307.154-.001.032.110.233.265.218.095.032.012.002--
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
91Western Kentucky-.307.349--.044.139.286.268.182.058.017.006---
92Miami (OH)-.327.643-.015.070.168.278.253.141.060.013.002---
93Troy-.366.957-.004.030.099.211.264.221.109.049.012.001--
94Hawaii-.377.252.001.009.048.134.211.250.188.100.039.019.001--
95Oregon State-.374.6108---.003.023.059.169.252.233.180.068.013-
96New Mexico-.377.055-.002.038.107.225.266.202.112.040.006.002--
97Liberty-.417.739.002.019.079.182.278.219.148.058.011.004---
98Louisiana-.467.153-.006.046.112.237.264.198.099.026.012---
99Connecticut-.465.781--.006.025.101.195.245.205.160.051.011.001-
100Jacksonville State-.497.546.004.018.079.177.249.226.154.070.016.007---
101Wyoming-.506.663.001.005.021.091.166.230.219.156.086.019.006--
102Louisiana Tech-.515.588--.001.029.073.183.242.246.150.058.015.003-
103Appalachian State-.525.683-.001.006.020.080.178.249.246.154.053.011.002-
104South Alabama-.525.782--.004.025.091.157.270.227.147.061.016.002-
105San Jose State-.536.566-.003.027.061.150.243.264.139.092.015.005.001-
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
106Coastal Carolina-.585.391--.004.020.064.128.238.254.176.081.028.007-
107Georgia Southern-.604.5113---.002.019.070.141.248.250.179.072.014.005
108Missouri State-.605.685---.024.054.187.249.255.159.049.019.004-
109Colorado State-.613.3134-----.011.043.130.260.269.200.082.005
110Kennesaw State-.616.271-.001.010.057.137.227.229.189.113.033.004--
111Central Michigan-.645.880-.001.007.031.087.198.268.233.120.043.012--
112Arkansas State-.645.490--.002.024.078.160.242.236.175.060.020.003-
113Temple-.644.2117---.002.005.036.121.244.321.173.080.018-
114Florida Atlantic-.654.3114----.015.048.134.256.270.195.071.011-
115Tulsa-.664.5111---.001.013.055.155.285.259.169.055.008-
116Northern Illinois-.684.8101--.002.006.030.097.187.268.214.150.035.009.002
117Southern Miss-.694.3116---.002.011.047.131.233.243.217.095.020.001
118UAB-.703.9122----.004.022.092.211.309.237.104.021-
119Bowling Green-.715.195--.001.002.036.102.247.293.222.077.018.002-
120Buffalo-.726.077--.005.027.103.256.257.212.110.020.010--
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
121Nevada-.774.7106--.002.008.032.088.167.250.234.139.068.012-
122Georgia State-.794.1119---.002.010.042.123.199.244.234.103.039.004
123Eastern Michigan-.805.097--.001.003.042.112.221.263.207.116.029.006-
124Delaware-.804.6109--.001.005.021.083.170.230.253.152.060.025-
125Florida International-.835.294--.002.011.062.146.211.244.193.098.025.008-
126Rice-.852.9136----.001.002.023.074.197.265.292.129.017
127Middle Tennessee-.864.7105---.002.028.085.177.281.244.125.040.016.002
128UTEP-.893.8127---.001.011.026.087.201.245.242.149.032.006
129New Mexico State-.894.3115---.001.005.061.135.224.265.191.090.025.003
130Ball State-.954.2118----.008.030.131.241.293.192.088.016.001
132Sacramento State-1.004.5110--.001.002.015.061.148.275.250.165.069.011.003
131North Dakota State-1.003.8125----.005.035.081.176.248.253.144.049.009
133UL Monroe-1.023.3133---.001.001.014.055.123.249.283.190.075.009
134Sam Houston-1.023.7129----.002.024.075.179.249.266.152.047.006
135Kent State-1.063.3135----.001.010.044.137.250.287.191.069.011
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
136Charlotte-1.062.2138-----.001.004.019.111.236.339.249.041
137Akron-1.063.5131----.003.014.061.155.257.302.144.060.004
138Massachusetts-1.542.4137-----.002.008.034.133.284.316.177.046