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FEI Ratings
:: 2024 :: 2023 :: 2022 :: 2021 :: 2020 :: 2019 :: 2018 :: 2017 :: 2016 :: 2015 :: 2014 :: 2013 :: 2012 :: 2011 :: 2010 :: 2009 :: 2008 :: 2007

 

Projected FEI Ratings (FEI), Offense Ratings (OFEI), Defense Ratings (DFEI), and Special Teams Ratings (SFEI) are calculated from five years of opponent-adjusted possession efficiency data representing the scoring advantage per non-garbage possession a team or unit would expect to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. Strength of schedule ratings represent the number of losses a team two standard deviations above average would expect to have against the schedule of opponents (ELS), the number of losses a team one standard deviation above average would expect to have against the schedule (GLS), and the number of losses an average team would expect to have against the schedule (ALS). Record projections include mean wins against the entire schedule (Total) and schedule of FBS opponents (FBS), and the likelihood that the team will win at least ten games (10+), at least eight games (8+), and at least six games (6+) in the regular season.

 

2024 PFEI Preseason Projections
:: Projected Ratings and Strength of Schedule :: Regular Season Win Total Projections :: What goes into the preseason projection model?

 

Projected Opponent-Adjusted Efficiency

  

Strength of Schedule

  

Record Projections
Rk Team FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk SFEI Rk   ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk   Total FBS 10+ 8+ 6+
1 Georgia 1.41   .72 3 .63 5 .09 5   1.49 23 4.52 6 7.90 6   10.5 9.6 .839 .994 1.000
2 Ohio State 1.31   .57 4 .70 2 .05 19   1.53 19 3.47 33 6.45 50   10.5 10.5 .859 .999 1.000
3 Oregon 1.30   .82 2 .48 11 .00 70   1.70 9 4.51 8 8.05 3   10.1 9.1 .728 .988 1.000
4 Michigan 1.28   .53 5 .68 3 .08 8   1.86 4 4.41 11 7.79 11   10.2 10.2 .775 .989 1.000
5 Alabama 1.21   .51 6 .61 6 .10 1   1.70 10 4.46 9 7.63 14   9.9 8.9 .644 .974 1.000
6 Notre Dame .95   .27 17 .60 7 .10 3   .56 60 2.42 58 6.16 59   10.5 10.5 .848 .996 1.000
7 LSU .93   .87 1 .08 65 .00 65   1.31 27 4.13 16 7.76 12   9.3 8.3 .464 .915 .995
8 Penn State .92   .25 18 .59 8 .09 6   1.19 30 3.80 25 7.49 21   9.4 9.4 .479 .925 1.000
9 Texas .92   .32 15 .52 10 .10 2   1.76 7 4.09 19 7.18 30   9.1 9.1 .389 .928 .998
10 Oklahoma .85   .50 8 .37 18 -.01 82   1.65 12 4.70 3 7.94 4   8.4 7.4 .232 .752 .988
11 Washington .84   .46 9 .34 21 .06 17   1.70 11 4.20 14 7.33 25   8.6 7.6 .241 .794 .987
12 Kansas State .82   .36 10 .41 14 .05 22   .34 89 2.33 61 6.45 48   10.1 9.1 .661 .966 .999
13 Clemson .70   .03 40 .70 1 -.01 74   .95 34 3.08 40 6.87 37   9.1 8.1 .400 .902 .999
14 Tennessee .64   .23 19 .35 20 .05 21   1.57 16 3.71 26 6.41 52   8.3 7.3 .149 .739 .985
15 Texas A&M .63   .17 24 .41 15 .05 24   1.26 28 3.96 21 7.27 26   8.1 7.1 .162 .679 .970
 
Rk Team FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk SFEI Rk   ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk   Total FBS 10+ 8+ 6+
16 Utah .62   .05 37 .52 9 .05 23   .38 84 2.35 59 6.32 56   9.2 8.2 .462 .899 .991
17 Missouri .61   .17 25 .37 19 .06 18   1.06 33 3.08 42 6.08 60   8.7 7.8 .282 .840 .993
18 Ole Miss .61   .34 13 .25 32 .03 35   1.37 24 3.66 29 6.97 34   8.1 7.1 .138 .675 .980
19 Florida State .59   .15 29 .43 13 .03 40   .72 45 3.28 34 7.36 23   8.4 7.4 .236 .725 .967
20 USC .56   .50 7 -.01 85 .05 20   1.92 3 5.16 2 8.78 2   6.5 6.5 .018 .273 .763
21 Oregon State .55   .35 12 .15 48 .04 31   .71 46 2.19 65 5.35 68   9.1 8.1 .384 .889 .996
22 Auburn .49   -.02 50 .44 12 .06 16   1.78 6 4.19 15 6.87 38   7.3 6.4 .045 .456 .939
23 Iowa State .49   .17 26 .29 28 .04 30   .58 58 2.91 46 6.89 36   8.1 7.1 .163 .650 .964
24 Wisconsin .46   .00 48 .40 16 .05 25   1.57 17 3.98 20 7.21 28   7.1 6.1 .038 .393 .880
25 Louisville .45   .16 28 .30 26 -.01 79   .66 49 2.70 51 6.42 51   8.1 7.1 .139 .663 .961
26 Oklahoma State .43   .06 34 .33 24 .03 33   .57 59 2.72 48 6.55 44   8.0 7.0 .147 .645 .942
27 Arizona .39   .20 22 .17 44 .02 48   .59 56 2.76 47 6.45 49   7.8 6.8 .108 .577 .939
28 TCU .39   .21 21 .14 50 .02 50   .43 74 2.71 49 6.91 35   7.6 6.6 .108 .535 .902
29 Florida .39   .16 27 .15 49 .08 11   1.93 2 5.41 1 9.03 1   5.5 4.5 .006 .094 .492
30 UCLA .36   .02 41 .38 17 -.05 106   1.63 13 4.41 12 7.93 5   6.2 6.2 .009 .172 .695
 
Rk Team FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk SFEI Rk   ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk   Total FBS 10+ 8+ 6+
31 Kentucky .35   .08 32 .27 29 .02 46   1.50 21 4.10 18 7.35 24   6.6 5.6 .015 .276 .795
32 Iowa .32   -.42 113 .66 4 .08 7   1.13 31 3.70 27 7.53 17   6.5 5.5 .022 .241 .752
33 Washington State .31   .04 38 .22 39 .04 27   .49 69 2.00 68 5.05 70   8.4 7.4 .199 .751 .982
34 Texas Tech .29   .00 46 .26 30 .03 39   .41 80 2.53 56 6.52 46   7.3 6.4 .062 .473 .892
35 North Carolina .29   .36 11 -.02 87 -.05 110   .28 94 2.00 69 5.75 65   8.0 7.0 .143 .615 .948
36 Maryland .28   .06 35 .14 51 .07 13   1.09 32 3.08 41 6.27 58   7.2 6.2 .035 .393 .888
37 Miami .28   .01 44 .23 36 .01 51   .38 85 2.22 63 5.91 63   7.6 6.7 .110 .542 .933
38 UCF .26   .22 20 .10 58 -.07 119   .50 66 2.69 52 6.61 43   7.0 6.0 .042 .368 .836
39 West Virginia .26   .08 31 .15 47 .03 36   .88 37 3.70 28 7.79 10   6.0 5.0 .015 .170 .618
40 SMU .25   .10 30 .16 45 .00 60   .37 86 2.20 64 5.93 62   7.6 6.6 .123 .541 .921
41 James Madison .24   -.03 52 .30 27 -.02 86   .14 120 .67 123 2.97 121   9.8 8.8 .620 .966 1.000
42 NC State .22   -.16 75 .34 23 .04 28   .46 73 2.22 62 5.68 66   7.6 6.6 .084 .530 .933
43 Duke .22   -.07 60 .22 37 .06 15   .32 91 2.17 66 5.89 64   7.4 6.4 .068 .454 .882
44 Boise State .20   .08 33 .14 52 .01 56   .79 39 1.93 70 4.50 78   8.2 7.2 .160 .715 .980
45 Air Force .20   .05 36 .12 55 .02 45   .21 105 1.04 107 3.75 97   8.7 7.8 .313 .827 .985
 
Rk Team FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk SFEI Rk   ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk   Total FBS 10+ 8+ 6+
46 Liberty .20   .33 14 -.06 91 -.06 113   .11 131 .39 133 2.03 133   10.3 9.3 .761 .983 1.000
47 Kansas .18   .30 16 -.07 92 -.05 105   .50 68 2.46 57 6.30 57   6.7 5.8 .037 .317 .781
48 Virginia Tech .17   .00 47 .09 64 .06 14   .32 90 1.68 79 5.33 69   7.6 7.6 .099 .530 .914
49 California .16   -.09 62 .24 35 .00 71   .48 72 2.56 55 6.48 47   6.6 5.7 .024 .285 .758
50 South Carolina .16   -.09 63 .22 38 .04 26   1.73 8 4.69 4 7.54 16   5.3 4.4 .001 .041 .427
51 Minnesota .13   .04 39 .09 61 .01 54   1.25 29 3.89 22 7.46 22   5.5 4.5 .001 .093 .477
52 Memphis .11   .18 23 -.06 90 .00 64   .23 104 .97 111 3.44 103   8.8 7.8 .285 .811 .989
53 Troy .10   -.15 73 .24 34 -.01 81   .14 118 .83 115 3.42 105   8.6 7.6 .232 .764 .987
54 Baylor .08   -.12 68 .09 62 .09 4   .51 65 2.97 43 7.21 27   5.5 4.5 .004 .097 .508
55 Appalachian State .06   .01 45 .08 66 -.03 95   .30 92 1.45 87 4.58 77   7.5 6.6 .098 .530 .902
56 Mississippi State .06   -.18 79 .25 31 -.02 87   1.61 14 4.36 13 7.51 20   5.1 4.1 .001 .043 .394
57 Tulane .05   -.11 64 .19 41 -.01 76   .58 57 1.70 76 3.88 93   8.0 7.0 .110 .644 .976
58 Purdue .05   .01 43 .10 60 -.06 114   1.99 1 4.67 5 7.84 8   4.4 3.5 - .009 .172
59 BYU .02   -.12 66 .12 54 .00 63   .63 52 3.08 39 7.15 31   5.1 4.1 .004 .052 .373
60 Nebraska .02   -.29 93 .34 22 -.02 93   .93 35 2.95 44 6.39 53   5.9 4.9 .006 .138 .607
 
Rk Team FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk SFEI Rk   ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk   Total FBS 10+ 8+ 6+
61 Illinois .02   -.12 67 .11 57 .00 62   1.49 22 3.54 32 6.64 42   5.5 4.6 - .074 .481
62 Arkansas .01   -.21 82 .18 42 .04 29   1.36 25 4.44 10 7.82 9   4.5 3.6 .001 .014 .237
63 Northwestern .01   -.26 89 .25 33 .01 52   1.59 15 4.11 17 7.58 15   4.7 3.7 - .021 .278
64 Wake Forest .00   -.05 54 .06 68 .01 57   .49 70 2.62 53 6.37 54   5.8 4.9 .009 .129 .557
65 Pittsburgh -.02   -.32 102 .32 25 -.02 91   .42 79 2.33 60 5.99 61   6.0 5.0 .008 .157 .599
66 Cincinnati -.03   -.06 55 .04 74 -.01 85   .54 61 2.71 50 6.66 40   5.3 4.4 .004 .074 .449
67 Fresno State -.03   -.07 59 .04 75 .00 72   .73 42 1.90 71 4.31 83   7.3 6.3 .037 .460 .917
68 Louisiana -.05   .02 42 -.08 94 -.01 75   .11 127 .86 113 3.55 101   7.8 6.9 .142 .615 .928
69 Georgia Tech -.06   -.04 53 -.01 86 -.01 78   1.32 26 3.88 23 7.53 18   4.4 3.5 - .016 .215
70 Virginia -.07   -.08 61 .05 72 -.05 107   .72 44 3.11 37 7.05 33   4.7 3.7 - .034 .282
71 Arizona State -.10   -.18 81 .11 56 -.03 101   .65 50 3.19 36 7.52 19   4.2 4.2 .001 .017 .201
72 Houston -.11   -.06 58 -.09 96 .03 37   .92 36 3.65 30 7.69 13   4.0 4.0 - .008 .132
73 Rutgers -.12   -.32 100 .13 53 .08 10   .61 54 2.91 45 6.64 41   5.0 4.0 .001 .046 .336
74 Wyoming -.13   -.24 87 .10 59 .01 59   .16 110 1.16 98 4.19 86   6.8 5.9 .047 .361 .782
75 Colorado -.13   -.06 57 -.09 99 .03 38   .64 51 3.10 38 7.10 32   4.3 3.4 - .015 .217
 
Rk Team FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk SFEI Rk   ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk   Total FBS 10+ 8+ 6+
76 South Alabama -.14   -.18 78 .06 69 -.04 103   .40 81 1.31 95 3.84 94   7.0 6.1 .039 .411 .866
77 Indiana -.15   -.17 76 .01 81 .01 53   1.52 20 3.59 31 6.37 55   5.1 4.1 - .031 .376
78 San Jose State -.16   -.06 56 -.09 98 -.01 83   .27 96 1.55 85 4.63 75   6.5 5.6 .015 .241 .767
79 Toledo -.16   -.14 72 .02 79 -.04 102   .11 130 .44 132 2.36 131   8.4 7.5 .220 .726 .966
80 Western Kentucky -.17   -.12 65 .00 83 -.05 104   .60 55 1.36 92 3.37 106   7.4 6.5 .060 .487 .916
81 UTSA -.18   -.13 70 -.06 89 .02 43   .40 82 1.03 108 2.97 120   7.7 6.7 .086 .560 .924
82 Michigan State -.18   -.26 90 .06 71 .02 47   1.82 5 3.83 24 6.84 39   4.4 3.5 - .010 .197
83 Coastal Carolina -.19   -.02 49 -.10 101 -.07 122   .13 122 1.02 109 4.08 89   6.4 5.4 .015 .206 .708
84 Jacksonville State -.20   -.40 111 .20 40 .00 67   .20 106 .84 114 3.00 118   7.7 7.7 .101 .602 .939
85 Boston College -.20   -.02 51 -.13 104 -.03 99   .48 71 2.57 54 6.52 45   4.6 3.7 .002 .022 .261
86 Miami (OH) -.20   -.42 115 .17 43 .07 12   .42 76 1.21 96 3.36 107   7.2 7.2 .054 .419 .901
87 Stanford -.21   -.12 69 -.17 111 .08 9   .74 41 3.23 35 7.21 29   3.8 2.9 - .005 .124
88 Ohio -.22   -.18 77 .03 77 -.07 123   .15 114 .67 122 2.76 126   7.6 6.7 .090 .544 .919
89 Syracuse -.24   -.23 84 .07 67 -.05 109   .16 111 1.43 88 4.89 73   5.6 4.7 .007 .114 .532
90 Marshall -.24   -.37 107 .15 46 -.03 97   .69 47 1.69 78 4.17 88   6.3 5.4 .008 .208 .738
 
Rk Team FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk SFEI Rk   ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk   Total FBS 10+ 8+ 6+
91 San Diego State -.31   -.41 112 .06 70 .03 32   .27 95 1.59 81 4.62 76   5.5 4.6 .004 .082 .497
92 UNLV -.34   -.23 85 -.11 102 .00 61   .23 103 1.34 94 4.42 80   5.4 4.5 .003 .092 .481
93 Georgia State -.35   -.14 71 -.13 103 -.07 120   .13 121 .74 117 3.44 104   6.2 5.3 .012 .203 .672
94 Army -.35   -.39 110 .02 80 .02 49   .42 78 1.13 99 3.30 109   6.5 5.6 .019 .257 .750
95 Florida Atlantic -.37   -.39 109 .03 76 -.02 89   .11 129 .26 134 1.83 134   7.7 6.8 .140 .553 .911
96 Vanderbilt -.43   -.30 97 -.15 107 .02 41   1.57 18 4.51 7 7.84 7   2.7 1.8 - - .007
97 Georgia Southern -.44   -.27 91 -.16 109 -.01 84   .26 98 1.59 80 4.92 71   4.4 3.5 - .020 .197
98 Arkansas State -.45   -.25 88 -.22 115 .01 55   .73 43 1.76 75 4.24 85   5.2 4.3 .002 .057 .418
99 Texas State -.45   -.27 92 -.17 110 -.02 88   .11 128 .64 124 3.20 113   5.9 5.0 .008 .151 .576
100 Navy -.46   -.49 122 .05 73 -.01 77   .42 77 1.40 91 3.77 96   5.5 4.6 .007 .092 .524
101 Buffalo -.46   -.50 124 .09 63 -.08 127   .24 102 .72 119 2.19 132   7.3 6.4 .048 .465 .891
102 Utah State -.48   -.23 86 -.21 113 -.03 96   .39 83 1.70 77 4.42 81   4.9 4.0 - .032 .343
103 Middle Tennessee -.49   -.36 106 -.10 100 -.03 94   .26 99 1.35 93 3.83 95   5.4 4.5 .003 .068 .445
104 Northern Illinois -.50   -.29 95 -.15 106 -.06 117   .43 75 1.19 97 3.12 114   6.1 5.2 .009 .167 .674
105 UAB -.51   -.18 80 -.27 118 -.06 118   .11 132 .59 127 2.76 125   6.0 5.1 .007 .163 .635
 
Rk Team FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk SFEI Rk   ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk   Total FBS 10+ 8+ 6+
106 Colorado State -.51   -.45 116 -.08 95 .02 44   .51 64 1.83 73 4.50 79   4.9 4.0 .002 .029 .345
107 Tulsa -.52   -.35 105 -.14 105 -.03 100   .17 108 .57 129 2.70 127   5.8 4.9 .010 .141 .549
108 Old Dominion -.52   -.51 127 .03 78 -.05 108   .15 117 1.07 104 4.37 82   4.1 4.1 - .012 .181
109 South Florida -.52   -.30 96 -.22 114 .01 58   .61 53 1.57 83 3.95 91   5.0 4.2 .001 .042 .340
110 East Carolina -.53   -.49 123 -.09 97 .02 42   .12 124 .59 128 2.88 122   5.6 4.7 .005 .118 .513
111 Rice -.59   -.33 103 -.18 112 -.08 126   .11 134 .61 125 2.98 119   5.3 4.4 .002 .083 .452
112 Bowling Green -.59   -.55 128 -.01 84 -.01 80   .53 63 1.45 86 3.35 108   5.6 4.7 - .079 .513
113 North Texas -.60   -.16 74 -.48 131 .03 34   .14 119 .97 112 3.91 92   4.4 3.5 - .012 .206
114 Sam Houston -.60   -.60 130 .00 82 .00 68   .15 115 .72 120 2.87 123   5.3 5.3 - .067 .437
115 Western Michigan -.61   -.22 83 -.31 121 -.08 128   .74 40 1.43 89 3.00 117   5.6 4.7 .001 .087 .516
116 Ball State -.62   -.47 118 -.05 88 -.09 132   .15 113 .73 118 3.09 116   5.0 4.1 .001 .040 .357
117 New Mexico State -.62   -.29 94 -.31 122 -.02 90   .26 101 1.08 103 3.30 110   5.1 4.3 .003 .046 .397
118 Central Michigan -.65   -.32 101 -.26 117 -.08 125   .11 133 .45 131 2.59 129   5.2 4.3 .001 .067 .443
119 Southern Mississippi -.66   -.42 114 -.15 108 -.09 131   .17 109 1.12 100 4.18 87   3.8 3.0 - .005 .131
120 Hawaii -.67   -.30 99 -.33 123 -.06 112   .18 107 1.08 102 3.61 100   4.7 3.1 .002 .018 .267
 
Rk Team FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk SFEI Rk   ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk   Total FBS 10+ 8+ 6+
121 Louisiana Tech -.67   -.34 104 -.35 126 .00 66   .12 123 .60 126 2.65 128   5.2 4.4 - .047 .420
122 Nevada -.74   -.61 133 -.07 93 -.06 116   .26 97 1.83 74 5.61 67   3.1 2.3 - - .041
123 Eastern Michigan -.79   -.50 126 -.27 119 -.02 92   .35 88 1.00 110 2.87 124   4.9 4.0 .001 .034 .341
124 UL Monroe -.82   -.48 119 -.24 116 -.10 133   .50 67 1.86 72 4.92 72   2.8 2.0 - - .017
125 Charlotte -.85   -.47 117 -.33 124 -.07 121   .15 112 1.04 106 4.02 90   3.0 2.2 - - .025
126 New Mexico -.86   -.30 98 -.45 130 -.14 134   .29 93 1.57 82 4.72 74   2.7 1.9 - - .018
127 UTEP -.90   -.48 120 -.36 128 -.06 115   .26 100 1.05 105 3.22 112   3.8 3.0 - .006 .102
128 Temple -.91   -.48 121 -.35 127 -.08 124   .36 87 1.10 101 3.66 99   2.9 2.9 - .001 .033
129 Connecticut -.94   -.59 129 -.31 120 -.03 98   .15 116 .83 116 3.29 111   3.6 2.8 - .005 .064
130 Florida International -.94   -.61 131 -.34 125 -.01 73   .12 126 .48 130 2.41 130   3.8 3.0 - .010 .133
131 Kennesaw State -1.00   -.50 125 -.50 132 .00 69   .12 125 .69 121 3.11 115   3.0 2.3 - .001 .032
132 Kent State -1.06   -.37 108 -.62 134 -.08 129   .54 62 1.56 84 3.72 98   3.0 2.3 - - .043
133 Akron -1.21   -.75 134 -.37 129 -.09 130   .67 48 1.41 90 3.50 102   2.2 1.5 - - .005
134 Massachusetts -1.28   -.61 132 -.62 133 -.05 111   .87 38 2.01 67 4.27 84   2.3 .9 - - .001