FEI Ratings
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Projected FEI Ratings (PFEI) are calculated from five years of opponent-adjusted possession efficiency data representing the scoring advantage per non-garbage possession a team or unit would expect to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. Regular season win total projections are calculated from individual game projections based on PFEI ratings, and represent the likelihood that a team with the given rating would win a specific number of regular season games against its set of opponents.
2024 PFEI Preseason Projections
:: Projected Ratings and Strength of Schedule :: Regular Season Win Total Projections :: What goes into the preseason projection model?
Projected FEI Ratings |
Regular Season Win Total Projections |
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Rk | Team | PFEI | 12W | 11W | 10W | 9W | 8W | 7W | 6W | 5W | 4W | 3W | 2W | 1W | 0W | |
1 | Georgia | 1.41 | .172 | .408 | .259 | .133 | .022 | .005 | .001 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
2 | Ohio State | 1.31 | .142 | .386 | .331 | .133 | .007 | .001 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
3 | Oregon | 1.30 | .080 | .313 | .335 | .191 | .069 | .011 | .001 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
4 | Michigan | 1.28 | .100 | .299 | .376 | .178 | .036 | .010 | .001 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
5 | Alabama | 1.21 | .066 | .248 | .330 | .229 | .101 | .023 | .003 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
6 | Notre Dame | .95 | .193 | .351 | .304 | .127 | .021 | .003 | .001 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
7 | LSU | .93 | .027 | .148 | .289 | .268 | .183 | .065 | .015 | .003 | .002 | - | - | - | - | |
8 | Penn State | .92 | .025 | .163 | .291 | .293 | .153 | .060 | .015 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
9 | Texas | .92 | .016 | .104 | .269 | .337 | .202 | .057 | .013 | .002 | - | - | - | - | - | |
10 | Oklahoma | .85 | .009 | .056 | .167 | .254 | .266 | .165 | .071 | .012 | - | - | - | - | - | |
11 | Washington | .84 | .006 | .066 | .169 | .285 | .268 | .141 | .052 | .013 | - | - | - | - | - | |
12 | Kansas State | .82 | .102 | .279 | .280 | .222 | .083 | .027 | .006 | .001 | - | - | - | - | - | |
13 | Clemson | .70 | .015 | .134 | .251 | .315 | .187 | .066 | .031 | .001 | - | - | - | - | - | |
14 | Tennessee | .64 | .002 | .026 | .121 | .311 | .279 | .190 | .056 | .015 | - | - | - | - | - | |
15 | Texas A&M | .63 | .007 | .033 | .122 | .236 | .281 | .195 | .096 | .026 | .004 | - | - | - | - | |
Rk | Team | PFEI | 12W | 11W | 10W | 9W | 8W | 7W | 6W | 5W | 4W | 3W | 2W | 1W | 0W | |
16 | Utah | .62 | .040 | .152 | .270 | .260 | .177 | .071 | .021 | .007 | .002 | - | - | - | - | |
17 | Missouri | .61 | .007 | .062 | .213 | .312 | .246 | .117 | .036 | .006 | .001 | - | - | - | - | |
18 | Ole Miss | .61 | .002 | .025 | .111 | .238 | .299 | .199 | .106 | .017 | .003 | - | - | - | - | |
19 | Florida State | .59 | .011 | .058 | .167 | .241 | .248 | .171 | .071 | .024 | .008 | .001 | - | - | - | |
20 | USC | .56 | - | .001 | .017 | .080 | .175 | .244 | .246 | .152 | .069 | .013 | .003 | - | - | |
21 | Oregon State | .55 | .014 | .107 | .263 | .294 | .211 | .077 | .030 | .003 | .001 | - | - | - | - | |
22 | Auburn | .49 | - | .003 | .042 | .156 | .255 | .318 | .165 | .056 | .005 | - | - | - | - | |
23 | Iowa State | .49 | .008 | .040 | .115 | .221 | .266 | .209 | .105 | .026 | .009 | .001 | - | - | - | |
24 | Wisconsin | .46 | - | .006 | .032 | .123 | .232 | .252 | .235 | .086 | .031 | .003 | - | - | - | |
25 | Louisville | .45 | .005 | .026 | .108 | .259 | .265 | .202 | .096 | .031 | .007 | .001 | - | - | - | |
26 | Oklahoma State | .43 | .003 | .036 | .108 | .215 | .283 | .187 | .110 | .047 | .008 | .003 | - | - | - | |
27 | Arizona | .39 | .001 | .025 | .082 | .192 | .277 | .228 | .134 | .050 | .008 | .003 | - | - | - | |
28 | TCU | .39 | .002 | .025 | .081 | .194 | .233 | .215 | .152 | .075 | .017 | .006 | - | - | - | |
29 | Florida | .39 | - | - | .006 | .018 | .070 | .152 | .246 | .229 | .184 | .074 | .018 | .003 | - | |
30 | UCLA | .36 | - | - | .009 | .041 | .122 | .243 | .280 | .180 | .092 | .026 | .007 | - | - | |
Rk | Team | PFEI | 12W | 11W | 10W | 9W | 8W | 7W | 6W | 5W | 4W | 3W | 2W | 1W | 0W | |
31 | Kentucky | .35 | - | - | .015 | .054 | .207 | .254 | .265 | .149 | .048 | .007 | .001 | - | - | |
32 | Iowa | .32 | - | .003 | .019 | .064 | .155 | .244 | .267 | .144 | .084 | .016 | .004 | - | - | |
33 | Washington State | .31 | .004 | .046 | .149 | .246 | .306 | .189 | .042 | .016 | .002 | - | - | - | - | |
34 | Texas Tech | .29 | .002 | .006 | .054 | .161 | .250 | .250 | .169 | .079 | .021 | .005 | .003 | - | - | |
35 | North Carolina | .29 | .004 | .029 | .110 | .204 | .268 | .223 | .110 | .043 | .006 | .003 | - | - | - | |
36 | Maryland | .28 | - | .006 | .029 | .120 | .238 | .275 | .220 | .089 | .020 | .003 | - | - | - | |
37 | Miami | .28 | .003 | .017 | .090 | .180 | .252 | .240 | .151 | .050 | .013 | .004 | - | - | - | |
38 | UCF | .26 | .002 | .004 | .036 | .124 | .202 | .269 | .199 | .117 | .033 | .013 | .001 | - | - | |
39 | West Virginia | .26 | - | .003 | .012 | .045 | .110 | .200 | .248 | .214 | .107 | .048 | .009 | .004 | - | |
40 | SMU | .25 | .004 | .030 | .089 | .175 | .243 | .236 | .144 | .064 | .013 | .001 | .001 | - | - | |
41 | James Madison | .24 | .062 | .225 | .333 | .236 | .110 | .028 | .006 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
42 | NC State | .22 | .002 | .021 | .061 | .171 | .275 | .277 | .126 | .051 | .014 | .002 | - | - | - | |
43 | Duke | .22 | .001 | .013 | .054 | .156 | .230 | .245 | .183 | .082 | .032 | .004 | - | - | - | |
44 | Boise State | .20 | .001 | .029 | .130 | .246 | .309 | .178 | .087 | .018 | .001 | .001 | - | - | - | |
45 | Air Force | .20 | .017 | .102 | .194 | .281 | .233 | .103 | .055 | .015 | - | - | - | - | - | |
Rk | Team | PFEI | 12W | 11W | 10W | 9W | 8W | 7W | 6W | 5W | 4W | 3W | 2W | 1W | 0W | |
46 | Liberty | .20 | .135 | .295 | .331 | .176 | .046 | .016 | .001 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
47 | Kansas | .18 | .001 | .003 | .033 | .084 | .196 | .252 | .212 | .136 | .061 | .020 | .002 | - | - | |
48 | Virginia Tech | .17 | .001 | .011 | .087 | .184 | .247 | .236 | .148 | .057 | .021 | .006 | .002 | - | - | |
49 | California | .16 | - | .003 | .021 | .075 | .186 | .233 | .240 | .150 | .074 | .018 | - | - | - | |
50 | South Carolina | .16 | - | - | .001 | .008 | .032 | .135 | .251 | .285 | .230 | .056 | .002 | - | - | |
51 | Minnesota | .13 | - | - | .001 | .019 | .073 | .143 | .241 | .266 | .176 | .062 | .017 | .002 | - | |
52 | Memphis | .11 | .012 | .077 | .196 | .289 | .237 | .135 | .043 | .010 | .001 | - | - | - | - | |
53 | Troy | .10 | .004 | .079 | .149 | .262 | .270 | .163 | .060 | .011 | .002 | - | - | - | - | |
54 | Baylor | .08 | - | - | .004 | .029 | .064 | .152 | .259 | .229 | .160 | .079 | .021 | .003 | - | |
55 | Appalachian State | .06 | - | .021 | .077 | .185 | .247 | .230 | .142 | .075 | .020 | .003 | - | - | - | |
56 | Mississippi State | .06 | - | - | .001 | .005 | .037 | .109 | .242 | .285 | .205 | .098 | .017 | .001 | - | |
57 | Tulane | .05 | .002 | .013 | .095 | .215 | .319 | .235 | .097 | .019 | .005 | - | - | - | - | |
58 | Purdue | .05 | - | - | - | .001 | .008 | .040 | .123 | .271 | .297 | .195 | .054 | .011 | - | |
59 | BYU | .02 | - | .001 | .003 | .008 | .040 | .140 | .181 | .273 | .207 | .098 | .044 | .005 | - | |
60 | Nebraska | .02 | - | .001 | .005 | .033 | .099 | .200 | .269 | .211 | .134 | .040 | .008 | - | - | |
Rk | Team | PFEI | 12W | 11W | 10W | 9W | 8W | 7W | 6W | 5W | 4W | 3W | 2W | 1W | 0W | |
61 | Illinois | .02 | - | - | - | .008 | .066 | .147 | .260 | .268 | .157 | .074 | .020 | - | - | |
62 | Arkansas | .01 | - | - | .001 | .001 | .012 | .058 | .165 | .270 | .272 | .168 | .045 | .008 | - | |
63 | Northwestern | .01 | - | - | - | .001 | .020 | .074 | .183 | .268 | .243 | .152 | .047 | .012 | - | |
64 | Wake Forest | .00 | - | .001 | .008 | .025 | .095 | .191 | .237 | .241 | .146 | .046 | .010 | - | - | |
65 | Pittsburgh | -.02 | - | .002 | .006 | .029 | .120 | .195 | .247 | .228 | .128 | .040 | .005 | - | - | |
66 | Cincinnati | -.03 | - | - | .004 | .010 | .060 | .147 | .228 | .238 | .208 | .079 | .024 | .002 | - | |
67 | Fresno State | -.03 | - | .004 | .033 | .144 | .279 | .283 | .174 | .067 | .014 | .002 | - | - | - | |
68 | Louisiana | -.05 | .006 | .032 | .104 | .203 | .270 | .202 | .111 | .051 | .016 | .004 | .001 | - | - | |
69 | Georgia Tech | -.06 | - | - | - | .003 | .013 | .050 | .149 | .217 | .287 | .196 | .075 | .010 | - | |
70 | Virginia | -.07 | - | - | - | .005 | .029 | .083 | .165 | .233 | .258 | .150 | .066 | .011 | - | |
71 | Arizona State | -.10 | - | - | .001 | .003 | .013 | .051 | .133 | .224 | .253 | .193 | .091 | .037 | .001 | |
72 | Houston | -.11 | - | - | - | .002 | .006 | .027 | .097 | .201 | .276 | .253 | .109 | .026 | .003 | |
73 | Rutgers | -.12 | - | - | .001 | .008 | .037 | .087 | .203 | .257 | .257 | .117 | .029 | .004 | - | |
74 | Wyoming | -.13 | - | .011 | .036 | .105 | .209 | .220 | .201 | .146 | .066 | .005 | .001 | - | - | |
75 | Colorado | -.13 | - | - | - | .001 | .014 | .071 | .131 | .226 | .246 | .206 | .085 | .020 | - | |
Rk | Team | PFEI | 12W | 11W | 10W | 9W | 8W | 7W | 6W | 5W | 4W | 3W | 2W | 1W | 0W | |
76 | South Alabama | -.14 | - | .002 | .037 | .142 | .230 | .265 | .190 | .097 | .034 | .002 | .001 | - | - | |
77 | Indiana | -.15 | - | - | - | .005 | .026 | .105 | .240 | .298 | .231 | .081 | .012 | .002 | - | |
78 | San Jose State | -.16 | - | .002 | .013 | .072 | .154 | .255 | .271 | .149 | .064 | .018 | .002 | - | - | |
79 | Toledo | -.16 | .005 | .043 | .172 | .242 | .264 | .168 | .072 | .028 | .006 | - | - | - | - | |
80 | Western Kentucky | -.17 | - | .004 | .056 | .140 | .287 | .262 | .167 | .066 | .016 | .002 | - | - | - | |
81 | UTSA | -.18 | - | .014 | .072 | .203 | .271 | .232 | .132 | .060 | .012 | .004 | - | - | - | |
82 | Michigan State | -.18 | - | - | - | .001 | .009 | .050 | .137 | .268 | .287 | .168 | .065 | .015 | - | |
83 | Coastal Carolina | -.19 | - | .004 | .011 | .064 | .127 | .237 | .265 | .182 | .077 | .025 | .008 | - | - | |
84 | Jacksonville State | -.20 | - | .016 | .085 | .213 | .288 | .210 | .127 | .048 | .012 | .001 | - | - | - | |
85 | Boston College | -.20 | - | .001 | .001 | .002 | .018 | .066 | .173 | .260 | .261 | .156 | .056 | .005 | .001 | |
86 | Miami (OH) | -.20 | - | .003 | .051 | .137 | .228 | .283 | .199 | .063 | .034 | .002 | - | - | - | |
87 | Stanford | -.21 | - | - | - | - | .005 | .032 | .087 | .194 | .256 | .232 | .140 | .047 | .007 | |
88 | Ohio | -.22 | .001 | .014 | .075 | .186 | .268 | .230 | .145 | .062 | .016 | .003 | - | - | - | |
89 | Syracuse | -.24 | - | .001 | .006 | .025 | .082 | .168 | .250 | .239 | .153 | .059 | .016 | .001 | - | |
90 | Marshall | -.24 | - | .002 | .006 | .050 | .150 | .276 | .254 | .160 | .075 | .023 | .004 | - | - | |
Rk | Team | PFEI | 12W | 11W | 10W | 9W | 8W | 7W | 6W | 5W | 4W | 3W | 2W | 1W | 0W | |
91 | San Diego State | -.31 | - | .001 | .003 | .015 | .063 | .170 | .245 | .267 | .159 | .058 | .017 | .002 | - | |
92 | UNLV | -.34 | - | - | .003 | .017 | .072 | .146 | .243 | .234 | .175 | .089 | .016 | .005 | - | |
93 | Georgia State | -.35 | - | .001 | .011 | .058 | .133 | .216 | .253 | .196 | .089 | .036 | .006 | .001 | - | |
94 | Army | -.35 | - | .003 | .016 | .079 | .159 | .262 | .231 | .140 | .082 | .023 | .004 | .001 | - | |
95 | Florida Atlantic | -.37 | .002 | .032 | .106 | .175 | .238 | .239 | .119 | .067 | .018 | .004 | - | - | - | |
96 | Vanderbilt | -.43 | - | - | - | - | - | - | .007 | .066 | .165 | .341 | .302 | .113 | .006 | |
97 | Georgia Southern | -.44 | - | - | - | .006 | .014 | .058 | .119 | .254 | .280 | .170 | .081 | .018 | - | |
98 | Arkansas State | -.45 | - | - | .002 | .016 | .039 | .138 | .223 | .268 | .189 | .097 | .025 | .003 | - | |
99 | Texas State | -.45 | - | .001 | .007 | .044 | .099 | .216 | .209 | .219 | .121 | .066 | .016 | .002 | - | |
100 | Navy | -.46 | - | - | .007 | .012 | .073 | .163 | .269 | .219 | .169 | .070 | .015 | .003 | - | |
101 | Buffalo | -.46 | - | .006 | .042 | .163 | .254 | .243 | .183 | .082 | .024 | .002 | .001 | - | - | |
102 | Utah State | -.48 | - | - | - | .004 | .028 | .087 | .224 | .292 | .218 | .114 | .026 | .007 | - | |
103 | Middle Tennessee | -.49 | - | - | .003 | .017 | .048 | .128 | .249 | .291 | .165 | .080 | .017 | .002 | - | |
104 | Northern Illinois | -.50 | - | .001 | .008 | .035 | .123 | .250 | .257 | .200 | .091 | .030 | .005 | - | - | |
105 | UAB | -.51 | - | .001 | .006 | .043 | .113 | .205 | .267 | .207 | .114 | .037 | .006 | .001 | - | |
Rk | Team | PFEI | 12W | 11W | 10W | 9W | 8W | 7W | 6W | 5W | 4W | 3W | 2W | 1W | 0W | |
106 | Colorado State | -.51 | - | - | .002 | .005 | .022 | .119 | .197 | .285 | .223 | .105 | .036 | .005 | .001 | |
107 | Tulsa | -.52 | - | .001 | .009 | .030 | .101 | .168 | .240 | .220 | .148 | .060 | .018 | .005 | - | |
108 | Old Dominion | -.52 | - | - | - | .003 | .009 | .054 | .115 | .213 | .239 | .223 | .106 | .035 | .003 | |
109 | South Florida | -.52 | - | - | .001 | .008 | .033 | .105 | .193 | .274 | .222 | .123 | .040 | .001 | - | |
110 | East Carolina | -.53 | - | .001 | .004 | .031 | .082 | .162 | .233 | .237 | .159 | .066 | .021 | .004 | - | |
111 | Rice | -.59 | - | - | .002 | .019 | .062 | .150 | .219 | .258 | .179 | .085 | .023 | .003 | - | |
112 | Bowling Green | -.59 | - | - | - | .007 | .072 | .193 | .241 | .264 | .143 | .064 | .014 | .002 | - | |
113 | North Texas | -.60 | - | - | - | - | .012 | .056 | .138 | .218 | .291 | .181 | .086 | .018 | - | |
114 | Sam Houston | -.60 | - | - | - | .015 | .052 | .154 | .216 | .272 | .188 | .074 | .022 | .007 | - | |
115 | Western Michigan | -.61 | - | - | .001 | .012 | .074 | .182 | .247 | .234 | .159 | .070 | .020 | .001 | - | |
116 | Ball State | -.62 | - | - | .001 | .007 | .032 | .106 | .211 | .259 | .222 | .113 | .035 | .014 | - | |
117 | New Mexico State | -.62 | - | .001 | .002 | .011 | .032 | .124 | .227 | .284 | .195 | .098 | .023 | .001 | .002 | |
118 | Central Michigan | -.65 | - | - | .001 | .013 | .053 | .133 | .243 | .241 | .188 | .089 | .032 | .007 | - | |
119 | Southern Mississippi | -.66 | - | - | - | - | .005 | .027 | .099 | .201 | .253 | .228 | .139 | .043 | .005 | |
120 | Hawaii | -.67 | - | - | .002 | - | .016 | .077 | .172 | .282 | .245 | .154 | .042 | .010 | - | |
Rk | Team | PFEI | 12W | 11W | 10W | 9W | 8W | 7W | 6W | 5W | 4W | 3W | 2W | 1W | 0W | |
121 | Louisiana Tech | -.67 | - | - | - | .013 | .034 | .131 | .242 | .244 | .195 | .098 | .039 | .003 | .001 | |
122 | Nevada | -.74 | - | - | - | - | - | .007 | .034 | .087 | .203 | .306 | .251 | .101 | .011 | |
123 | Eastern Michigan | -.79 | - | - | .001 | .009 | .024 | .100 | .207 | .258 | .221 | .131 | .041 | .008 | - | |
124 | UL Monroe | -.82 | - | - | - | - | - | .001 | .016 | .076 | .209 | .281 | .286 | .111 | .020 | |
125 | Charlotte | -.85 | - | - | - | - | - | .007 | .018 | .094 | .220 | .286 | .244 | .112 | .019 | |
126 | New Mexico | -.86 | - | - | - | - | - | .004 | .014 | .069 | .160 | .295 | .298 | .138 | .022 | |
127 | UTEP | -.90 | - | - | - | .002 | .004 | .020 | .076 | .191 | .295 | .224 | .146 | .035 | .007 | |
128 | Temple | -.91 | - | - | - | - | .001 | .002 | .030 | .089 | .183 | .281 | .240 | .148 | .026 | |
129 | Connecticut | -.94 | - | - | - | .001 | .004 | .013 | .046 | .182 | .265 | .283 | .159 | .044 | .003 | |
130 | Florida International | -.94 | - | - | - | .002 | .008 | .022 | .101 | .178 | .276 | .244 | .121 | .043 | .005 | |
131 | Kennesaw State | -1.00 | - | - | - | - | .001 | .009 | .022 | .099 | .225 | .280 | .254 | .092 | .018 | |
132 | Kent State | -1.06 | - | - | - | - | - | .007 | .036 | .108 | .204 | .318 | .232 | .079 | .016 | |
133 | Akron | -1.21 | - | - | - | - | - | - | .005 | .032 | .104 | .239 | .356 | .210 | .054 | |
134 | Massachusetts | -1.28 | - | - | - | - | - | - | .001 | .009 | .104 | .284 | .381 | .194 | .027 |