Home Field Advantage

updated January 1, 2024

How much of a factor is home field advantage in college football? In comparison to some other sports that have generally balanced league membership, a lack of parity and high variance in schedule strength are pronounced features of college football at the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) level. Big stadium atmospheres packed with rabid fans can potentially tilt games and clutch moments in favor of home teams. And as theorized by the authors of Scorecasting, the slightly preferential treatment granted to home teams by referees unconsciously influenced by those crowds may be the primary reason home field advantage exists at all.

In the 2023 season, 848 games were played at home by FBS teams. The home team won 63.6% of those games and had an average scoring margin of +7.6 points per game. If it was reasonable to assume that home teams and visiting teams were evenly matched on average across all FBS games played, it would be reasonable to conclude that home field advantage was worth more than a touchdown in college football this past season. But we know it isn't that simple.

In 2023, FBS teams won 96.6% of games against Football Championship Series (FCS) opponents and had an average scoring margin of +29.6 points per game. All 118 of these matchups were FBS home games. FBS teams have significantly more program resources than FCS opponents, and these games are frequently mismatches that are rarely competitive. Home FBS teams are certainly advantaged over visiting FCS teams due to the economic and power structure imbalances between the two divisions, but FBS vs FCS game results would likely be similar no matter where the games were played.